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Messages - JediJman

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5941
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 01:00 PM »
Jay Cutler played really good tonight against the Raiders.  I think they will have a good season.

San Diego may still win the division, but the Broncos could very well be strong contenders for the wildcard.

They pounded the Raiders, but keep in mind that it was just the Raiders.  I'll believe they're for real when they do this to a decent team.

5942
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 12:59 PM »

Right... Coming from someone who has taken plenty of college statistics classes, you simply don't predict an average for a data set when you only know one data point from the set. The error rate is so high that any projection is about as useful as throwing a dart while blindfolded. There is no reason any sane statistician would predict a season based on that. Especially after your QB, last years MVP and nearly the only reason Moss set the recieving TD record last year, goes down for the season. Now you have Cassel coming in, who has been a career backup, in both college and in the NFL. I wouldn't count Moss out completely either. but 1800 yds and 16 TDs is by no menas a reasonable prediction. Cassel isn't Brady, Belichek knows that. I'd expect to see the Pats running the ball more and throwing a bit less. Moss wanted to go to NE specifically becasue of Brady, with Brady out and Cassel in will Moss start to look more like he did in Oakland? That remians to be seen I guess, but you can be assured he won't be repeating what he did last year nor will he be getting 1800 yds and 16 TDs.




You're still missing the point. Limited data sets are used to PROJECT statistics all the time.  Its not a guarantee or even a prediction of performance, just an expanded view of how that data set would be extrapolated.  As someone who has taken many statistics classes, you should know this already. I think you're getting confused by terminology. 

The whole point of the conversation is that you shouldn't assume Moss is a bust just because Brady went down, and Sunday's performance helps show that.  None of us can predict the future, but its too early to say that he will be a flop or not worthy of a first round selection when went for 100+ yards and a TD sans Brady. 

Still haven't heard back from Scott on how he is going to pay me my $100 once Moss scores his 8th TD.   ;D

5943
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 12:33 AM »
Game of the week starts tommorrow at 6:00.

Wow, what a barn burner so far... 10-6 late in the 3rd...  And I thought that The Bears had quarterback issues going into this season...  Looks like they are not alone with their brethren to the far North...

*EDIT* GreenBay just scored again, 17-6...

24 to 19 and it was a pretty good game in my opinion.  Only crappy part was that Grant didn't get that final block to make it a 59 yard TD run.  Cost me a week #1 game in my other league.   :P

5944
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 12:31 AM »
It is also a horrible logical flaw to say that it projects that he will have 1800 yds and 16 TDs... You can't predict a season based on one game. Based on that logic LT would only have 1500 yds rushing and no TDs, and barring an injury we all know he won't be held out of the endzone and entire year. You need to wait a couple weeks so you can average a couple weeks together to get a better predictor. Should Brady really be out for the year, I highly doubt Moss will hit 1800 yds and 16 TDs.

No, that's what a projection is.  Use the ratio of perfromance per game to date to estimate performance for the remainder of the games and that's what Moss would have.  I'm not saying he'll do exactly that, but the point is that he isn't exactly chopped liver just because Brady is out for the season.  I think its more of a "horrible logical flaw" to say that Moss isn't first round talent and will be a bust this season with no data to back that up versus looking at his week #1 Perfromance.  ;)

60 of those yards were with Brady throwing to him...I bet he'll be close to 1100 and 7 TD's
[/quote]

And I will bet you $100 dollars that Moss scores more than 7 TD's this year.   :o

5945
Announcements / Re: Thanks for 4+ Great Years
« on: September 8, 2008, 06:15 PM »
Wow - the end of an era!  Glad you'll still be hanging around the MN section oh fearless leader and hope you enjoy "retirement."   ;)

5946
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 8, 2008, 06:13 PM »

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner. 


The rookie, Forte, didn't surprise you?

Third best RB performance of the day....

Forte surprised me a little, but I drafted him high because I thought he would be this good.  Unfortunately, I let someone talk me out of playing him.   ::)

5947
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 8, 2008, 06:12 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO. 

Moss is ONLY 1st round material because of his QB and nothing else, no QB means less of a passing threat.  Sort of like his time in Oakland...hmmm?

Cleary you have an explanation for his 116 yards and TD with a lesser QB then...?

5948
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 7, 2008, 11:24 PM »
I'm a little sore that McGahee was supposed to start and didn't get a carry, but yeah, lots going on today!  Lookit how good all the new guys are - K. Smith, M. Turner (New as a starter), Chris Johnson, Tim Hightower, Matt Forte...

Game of the week starts tommorrow at 6:00.  Let's see if AP is the real deal.

5949
Other Toy Lines / Re: Transformers
« on: September 7, 2008, 11:18 PM »
Let's face it, outside of Masterpiece Editions the transformers figs have been a pile of turds on sticks ever since they dropped the Alternators figs.

Depends on your pov Justin.  Alts turned quite a few people away (moms/dads/lil kids) because they were so complex which left little Billy pissed off as well as myself - many times. 

My POV is that Moms, Dads, Lil' kids, and Little Billy are buying turds on sticks if they're buying any TFs outside of the Alternators/Binaltech line.  ;)

5950
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 7, 2008, 11:10 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO.  And Maroney may get more use with Brady out (though looks like Sammy will be poaching TDs again this year).

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner.  I avoided Parker, but managed to land Turner in a few leagues.  Actually the biggest surprise for me was CBS Sportsline posting an article most of the day that they were the one stop source to find out who is or is not starting on gameday, then featured a picture of McGahee stating he was starting.  Thanks guys!   ::)

5951
The Clone Wars '08-'13 / Re: The Battle of Christophsis BP
« on: September 7, 2008, 12:57 AM »
In the last 24 hours, I've gone from not wanting this set, to reconsidering it for the new paint aps, to now wanting two full sets.   ::)  I need to check into collector's rehab. 

5952
Star Wars Dioramas and Displays / Re: Coruscant Landing Platform Shelf
« on: September 7, 2008, 12:56 AM »
Wow, that is a great custom and a great idea!  Is it just made of wood?  Excellent design!

5953
The Bullpen / Marvel Legends
« on: September 7, 2008, 12:54 AM »
How much are the Target MLs? I want to pick up Spidey & maybe Wolverine.

Well, the Hulk Legends wave is $14.99 in Minneapolis.   ::)  I actually just watched ebay auctions and landed a She-hulk for less than that including shipping. 

5954
Other Toy Lines / Re: Transformers
« on: September 6, 2008, 08:40 PM »
Funny - I was at a local WM the other day and they had three center aisle displays of transformers out as well.  Still one 4x4 of Star Wars vehicles, but definitely a big Transformers push this month.  They had in some kind of Deluxe red helecopter autobot and a Deluxe beige/cam tank - sorry, can't remember the names. 

Let's face it, outside of Masterpiece Editions the transformers figs have been a pile of turds on sticks ever since they dropped the Alternators figs.   :(

5955
Watto's Junk Yard / Re: Terminator the Series
« on: September 6, 2008, 08:36 PM »
First season was better than I expected and eagerly awaiting Monday night.  I just hope it doesn't hit the Sophomore slump that most good shows seem to run into (Lost, Heroes, etc.).   :-\

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