I would also say the chances of a non Peter Parker Spiderman are at least 50/50.
You're crazy. The whole world knows Peter Parker as Spider-Man. Peter Parker movies have made Sony $4 billion. The circulation of the Miles Morales Spider-Man books is 30,000 (77th highest of January). I see the chances of a non-Parker Spidey somewhere south of 1%.
I hope you're right, but I think the odds are a little higher than 1%.
1.) In the comic world today we have a black Captain America and a female Thor.
2.) On the cinematic side we have a black Electro in Amazing Spiderman and a black Johnny Storm in the Fantastic Four.
3.) There are currently no blacks in the Avengers lineup (unless you count Fury I guess).
4.) The current cinematic Avengers map a lot more closely to the Ultimates universe where Miles is Spidey
I'm with Team Parker, but the conditions are certainly ripe to introduce Miles vs. Pete.