I think that every once in a while a main character has to die or you lose there ever being any suspense to the plot with those characters.
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I think efranks is right about New Moon being a sleeper for the year. My wife is way into the books/first movie, and that fanbase in general is pretty enthusiastic. I don't think its going to crack the top three, but top 5 is a distinct possibility.
Well, if they read the whole series, then I can't believe people would put too much into anything Twilight-related. The first movie/book were great, but overall that was the worst series ever.