Author Topic: Official Movie Thread  (Read 86069 times)

Offline Scockery

  • Jedi Apprentice
  • *
  • Posts: 1846
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1515 on: April 22, 2013, 01:12 PM »
That's the thing with Sci-fi movies.  It's hit or miss... awesome or suck.

I wouldn't say that for all of them. However, any movie that relies soley on a twist lives or dies by that.

Offline Pete_Fett

  • Jedi Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 3029
  • Jedi Killer
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1516 on: April 22, 2013, 01:57 PM »
Much to my chagrin, my wife loved this movie - we were talking about it some more yesterday and her big take-away was the love-story aspect of it. So if what they were striving for was a sci-fi-chick-flick they apparently hit the right notes there.

For me on the other hand, like Scockery says - if you have a movie that relies solely on a twist, you have to face the fact that your movie will live or die by that twist.

And if in your movie the twist is obvious five seconds into it, you're in A LOT of trouble.
Peter

Letting my collecting OCD get the better of me on a DAILY basis... and loving EVERY minute of it!

Offline efranks

  • Jedi Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 2876
  • Eric Franks
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1517 on: April 29, 2013, 12:15 AM »
With Iron Man 3 opening later this week, kicking off the real 2013 movie season, I thought I'd look at last year's predictions for the top 5 and pick mine again for this year.  Here's how the top 7 sorted out for 2012:

1 The Avengers
2 The Dark Knight Rises
3 The Hunger Games
4 Skyfall
5 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
6 Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2
7 The Amazing Spider-Man

I picked, in no order:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
The Avengers
The Amazing Spider-Man

And had The Hunger Games as my wild card to knock out The Amazin Spider-Man.  I also thought Hobbit, TDKR and Twilight would be in the race for number 1 but The Avengers owned all...TDKR did take number 2, though...even though it was over $175 million behind.

I never saw Skyfall coming.  It way over-performed for a Bond film and I think shocked everyone taking over $300m.  Good for the Bond franchise, though.

This year there are some biggies, but most of them are sequels.  I think I'm looking at these for the top 5, again, in no particular order.

Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

And I'm back and forth on number 5.  I think it'll be either The Hangover Part III or Monsters University.  I'm not sure how Hangover will be, 2 was down and I think this could drop out as well but Monsters University...eh.  There's usually one good animated film each year and Monsters, Inc did do $289m.  Thor: The Dark World could get up there with the bump from The Avengers although Thor did a relatively low $181m.  It did outperform Captain America...it could do a lot better this time around with a trailer that's pretty solid.

The next round of films with some potential, IMO, include:

Fast & Furious 6
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim
The Wolverine

I think The Wolverine sinks on the poor performance of the first film, while the Fast & Furious films have been doing better with Fast 5 ringing up $209m when they added The Rock, who is back again. 

We've also got Man of Steel but unless it's huge and gets good word of mouth, I expect a lot of people to pass.  World War Z is coming but that type of movie usually has modest box office, there's a new 300 film and Kick-Ass 2 is coming, but both franchises started kinda low.  I guess Ender's Game and The Mortal Instruments could do something, w/ Mortal Instruments trying to cash in on the TWilight and Potter crowd while Percy Jackson also has a sequel, that might not do much.

   E...
"I sell the drugs that keep you people from seeing dragons at night." - Gus "Psych"

Offline Neal

  • Jedi Apprentice
  • *
  • Posts: 1062
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1518 on: April 29, 2013, 01:55 PM »
Don't sleep on Despicable Me 2.  The first film made over $250 million domestic.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2013, 01:56 PM by Neal »

Offline BillCable

  • Jedi General
  • *
  • Posts: 9342
  • CreatureCantina.com SUCKS!!
    • View Profile
    • CreatureCantina.com
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1519 on: April 29, 2013, 02:05 PM »
My guesses:

1) Iron Man 3 (already shattering Avengers BO records overseas)
2) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
3) Monsters University (not a lot of kids summer films - first one made nearly $300 mil)
4) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5) Man of Steel (if it's as good as rumors suggest)

Already got my tix for IM3 Friday.
Bill Cable - Steeler Fan & Star Wars Collector
  http://CreatureCantina.com       
"Cable is incapable of contributing anything positive to this world" - cstoj

Offline efranks

  • Jedi Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 2876
  • Eric Franks
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1520 on: April 29, 2013, 02:45 PM »
Monsters University opens two weeks before Despicable Me 2  and it's possible that they could cannibalize each other's audience, plus DM2 opens against The Lone Ranger which could have an impact even though they aren't after the exact same audience.

But, I didn't realize that the first DM movie did that well.

   E...
"I sell the drugs that keep you people from seeing dragons at night." - Gus "Psych"

Offline Brian

  • Jedi Sentinel
  • *
  • Posts: 11091
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1521 on: April 29, 2013, 08:54 PM »
Its really sounding that Iron Man 3 is not only very good, but is even out-opening Avengers overseas (which is unreal to me).  That really makes me think that IM3 will likely be the top movie of the year, but if I had to guess at a Top 5, I think it would be:

Iron Man 3
Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
Man of Steel
Monsters University or Despicable Me 2

There are a few other movies like Star Trek Into Darkness, Thor: The Dark World, The Wolverine, Pacific Rim, or even comedies like Hangover III or This is The End that could be top earners as well.  I can't decide which animated movie (Monsters U or DM 2) will earn more - both look good and I know our daughter is looking forward to both about the same.  I guess you can't ever count out Fast and the Furious either, that franchise's success continues to amaze me.  I still haven't seen any of them, maybe I should do that some day.

Offline BillCable

  • Jedi General
  • *
  • Posts: 9342
  • CreatureCantina.com SUCKS!!
    • View Profile
    • CreatureCantina.com
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1522 on: June 10, 2013, 08:47 AM »
Looks like Fast 6 will end up out-earning NewTrek 2... impressed that franchise keeps building on the success of the previous installments.  Iron Man 3 looks set to crack $400 million domestic this week.  And it's looking like Man of Steel might give IM3 a run for its money.
Bill Cable - Steeler Fan & Star Wars Collector
  http://CreatureCantina.com       
"Cable is incapable of contributing anything positive to this world" - cstoj

Offline JediJman

  • Jedi Sentinel
  • *
  • Posts: 14070
  • I'm a dude.
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1523 on: June 10, 2013, 09:07 AM »
  And it's looking like Man of Steel might give IM3 a run for its money.

How do you know that?   ???
"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason. " -Jack Handey

Offline BillCable

  • Jedi General
  • *
  • Posts: 9342
  • CreatureCantina.com SUCKS!!
    • View Profile
    • CreatureCantina.com
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1524 on: June 10, 2013, 10:54 AM »
Early estimates for MoS opening weekend is $100 million plus.  If it can hit $150 million and has some legs, it might surpass $400 million.
Bill Cable - Steeler Fan & Star Wars Collector
  http://CreatureCantina.com       
"Cable is incapable of contributing anything positive to this world" - cstoj

Offline JediJman

  • Jedi Sentinel
  • *
  • Posts: 14070
  • I'm a dude.
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1525 on: June 10, 2013, 11:08 AM »
Early estimates for MoS opening weekend is $100 million plus.  If it can hit $150 million and has some legs, it might surpass $400 million.

I just don't get how there are any estimates before the movie is showing.  Are they polling poeple on whether or not they are going to see it?  It could very well beat Iron Man 3 - I just don't know how anyone would predict that in advance outside of a total guess.
"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason. " -Jack Handey

Offline BillCable

  • Jedi General
  • *
  • Posts: 9342
  • CreatureCantina.com SUCKS!!
    • View Profile
    • CreatureCantina.com
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1526 on: June 10, 2013, 11:16 AM »
Fandango tracks pre-sales and releases those numbers.  That's a pretty accurate gauge on how well a movie will do on any given weekend.  If you follow the industry, opening weekend estimates are a big focus.
Bill Cable - Steeler Fan & Star Wars Collector
  http://CreatureCantina.com       
"Cable is incapable of contributing anything positive to this world" - cstoj

Offline Mikey D

  • Jedi Knight
  • *
  • Posts: 3353
  • Lost soul
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1527 on: June 10, 2013, 11:20 AM »
^
By tracking pre-sales of tickets.  I can buy tickets on Fandango for Man of Steel right now for certain shows and the list of shows will grow the closer we get to Friday.
Common sense isn't so common

Offline JediJman

  • Jedi Sentinel
  • *
  • Posts: 14070
  • I'm a dude.
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1528 on: June 10, 2013, 12:04 PM »
Wow, do that many people buy pre-sale tickets?  I would think this is just a small fraction of the opening weekend ticket sales.
"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason. " -Jack Handey

Offline DSJ™

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Council Member
  • *
  • Posts: 22205
  • Bouncy! Bouncy! I'm An Insane Kubrickaholic!™
    • View Profile
Re: Official Movie Thread
« Reply #1529 on: June 10, 2013, 12:23 PM »
Thurs night shows up here are sold out. Next show on Fri at 12:30 pm, only 19 seats were sold when I got my ticket. 4pm show is 1/2 sold... last 2 shows are sold out. Weekend shows pretty well sold out. Sitting dead center for UltraAVX 3D, bring it on!  ;D