Author Topic: JD Fantasy Football 2008  (Read 20702 times)

Offline Scott

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #135 on: September 8, 2008, 08:31 AM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO. 

Moss is ONLY 1st round material because of his QB and nothing else, no QB means less of a passing threat.  Sort of like his time in Oakland...hmmm?

Offline ruiner

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #136 on: September 8, 2008, 09:20 AM »

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner. 


The rookie, Forte, didn't surprise you?

Third best RB performance of the day....

Offline Matt Carroll

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #137 on: September 8, 2008, 09:45 AM »


I don't think Turner is a surprise at all.  Every opportunity he ever had at SD was awesome when they sat LT.  He averaged over 5 YPC in a backup roll.  The only and I mean only reason I didn't take him was because I already had two guys (Westbrook and MJD) with the same bye week as Turner. 



And I'm very thankful the bye schedule worked out that way and that you passed on Turner.  :)
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Offline Rob

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #138 on: September 8, 2008, 09:52 AM »
Don't go getting too excited about Turner just yet.  He may be awesome, but let's wait until they play against a real defense before we declare him the next coming of LT.

Offline Morgbug

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #139 on: September 8, 2008, 02:21 PM »
Oh I don't think he's the next coming of LT, but I do think in next year's draft he'll be viewed as a very serviceable #2 RB.  Truthfully I was expecting to draft a WR with my  #2 pick, but the guys I really wanted went before it came back to me.  I wasn't about to risk Turner and leave MJD on the table.  But if he hadn't been a week 7 bye, I'd have gone RB-RB-RB instead. 

But yesterday really was an interesting day fantasy wise.  Lots of points from lots of funny places.  I'm also waiting to hear the fate of a couple of my guys with respect to injuries.  Nothing Brady like, but the word "knee" in football scares me as much as "hamstring" does in baseball. 
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Offline JediJman

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #140 on: September 8, 2008, 06:12 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO. 

Moss is ONLY 1st round material because of his QB and nothing else, no QB means less of a passing threat.  Sort of like his time in Oakland...hmmm?

Cleary you have an explanation for his 116 yards and TD with a lesser QB then...?
"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason. " -Jack Handey

Offline JediJman

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #141 on: September 8, 2008, 06:13 PM »

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner. 


The rookie, Forte, didn't surprise you?

Third best RB performance of the day....

Forte surprised me a little, but I drafted him high because I thought he would be this good.  Unfortunately, I let someone talk me out of playing him.   ::)
« Last Edit: September 8, 2008, 06:13 PM by JediJman »
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Offline Ryan

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #142 on: September 8, 2008, 07:08 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO. 

Moss is ONLY 1st round material because of his QB and nothing else, no QB means less of a passing threat.  Sort of like his time in Oakland...hmmm?

Cleary you have an explanation for his 116 yards and TD with a lesser QB then...?

Uh it was still just one game, and they were playing Kansas City? That really isn't that much of an accomplishment against that kind of team.

It is also a horrible logical flaw to say that it projects that he will have 1800 yds and 16 TDs... You can't predict a season based on one game. Based on that logic LT would only have 1500 yds rushing and no TDs, and barring an injury we all know he won't be held out of the endzone and entire year. You need to wait a couple weeks so you can average a couple weeks together to get a better predictor. Should Brady really be out for the year, I highly doubt Moss will hit 1800 yds and 16 TDs.
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Offline Scott

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #143 on: September 8, 2008, 08:37 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO. 

Moss is ONLY 1st round material because of his QB and nothing else, no QB means less of a passing threat.  Sort of like his time in Oakland...hmmm?

Cleary you have an explanation for his 116 yards and TD with a lesser QB then...?
60 of those yards were with Brady throwing to him...I bet he'll be close to 1100 and 7 TD's

Offline ruiner

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #144 on: September 8, 2008, 09:37 PM »

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner. 


The rookie, Forte, didn't surprise you?

Third best RB performance of the day....

Forte surprised me a little, but I drafted him high because I thought he would be this good.  Unfortunately, I let someone talk me out of playing him.   ::)

Are you referring to me?

Offline Morgbug

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #145 on: September 8, 2008, 10:16 PM »
Talk about the horns of a dilemma.  If Peterson scores in last minute, I lose, but Vikings win.  Let's go Sidney Rice.
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Offline JediJman

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #146 on: September 9, 2008, 12:31 AM »
It is also a horrible logical flaw to say that it projects that he will have 1800 yds and 16 TDs... You can't predict a season based on one game. Based on that logic LT would only have 1500 yds rushing and no TDs, and barring an injury we all know he won't be held out of the endzone and entire year. You need to wait a couple weeks so you can average a couple weeks together to get a better predictor. Should Brady really be out for the year, I highly doubt Moss will hit 1800 yds and 16 TDs.

No, that's what a projection is.  Use the ratio of perfromance per game to date to estimate performance for the remainder of the games and that's what Moss would have.  I'm not saying he'll do exactly that, but the point is that he isn't exactly chopped liver just because Brady is out for the season.  I think its more of a "horrible logical flaw" to say that Moss isn't first round talent and will be a bust this season with no data to back that up versus looking at his week #1 Perfromance.  ;)

60 of those yards were with Brady throwing to him...I bet he'll be close to 1100 and 7 TD's
[/quote]

And I will bet you $100 dollars that Moss scores more than 7 TD's this year.   :o
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Offline Ryan

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #147 on: September 9, 2008, 02:10 AM »
It is also a horrible logical flaw to say that it projects that he will have 1800 yds and 16 TDs... You can't predict a season based on one game. Based on that logic LT would only have 1500 yds rushing and no TDs, and barring an injury we all know he won't be held out of the endzone and entire year. You need to wait a couple weeks so you can average a couple weeks together to get a better predictor. Should Brady really be out for the year, I highly doubt Moss will hit 1800 yds and 16 TDs.

No, that's what a projection is.  Use the ratio of perfromance per game to date to estimate performance for the remainder of the games and that's what Moss would have. 

You're right. How silly of me to think you can't project a season based on the first game of the year. Well it looks like Michael Turner will have 3250 yds rushing and 32 TDS on the season. 3000 yard club anyone? Braylon Edwards is a flop and will go for 224 yds and 0 TDs. Ocho Cinco's name change has jinxed him and he will only have 352 yds with no TDs. Willie Parker is going to shatter the rushing TD record with 48 TDs and 2208 yds to go along with them. Solid projections there. How could I possibly doubt any of those? ::)

Quote
I think its more of a "horrible logical flaw" to say that Moss isn't first round talent and will be a bust this season with no data to back that up versus looking at his week #1 Perfromance.  ;)


Right... Coming from someone who has taken plenty of college statistics classes, you simply don't predict an average for a data set when you only know one data point from the set. The error rate is so high that any projection is about as useful as throwing a dart while blindfolded. There is no reason any sane statistician would predict a season based on that. Especially after your QB, last years MVP and nearly the only reason Moss set the recieving TD record last year, goes down for the season. Now you have Cassel coming in, who has been a career backup, in both college and in the NFL. I wouldn't count Moss out completely either. but 1800 yds and 16 TDs is by no menas a reasonable prediction. Cassel isn't Brady, Belichek knows that. I'd expect to see the Pats running the ball more and throwing a bit less. Moss wanted to go to NE specifically becasue of Brady, with Brady out and Cassel in will Moss start to look more like he did in Oakland? That remians to be seen I guess, but you can be assured he won't be repeating what he did last year nor will he be getting 1800 yds and 16 TDs.


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Offline Rob

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #148 on: September 9, 2008, 11:16 AM »
A few years ago Barry Bonds was on pace for 320+ HR in a single season after one game.

Offline ruiner

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Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #149 on: September 9, 2008, 11:36 AM »
I just lost my first FF game by 1.04 points.

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