Author Topic: JD Fantasy Football 2008  (Read 19766 times)

Offline Rob

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Council Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20342
    • View Profile
    • Vitamin
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #150 on: September 9, 2008, 11:39 AM »
Yeah - my team sucked ass, I had no business winning that game.

Offline ruiner

  • Jedi Master
  • *
  • Posts: 5023
  • raised to be lowered
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #151 on: September 9, 2008, 11:44 AM »
No, you deserved it.  I was the one without a QB.


Offline Ryan

  • Retired Staff Member
  • Jedi Master
  • *
  • Posts: 5355
  • The North Remembers
    • View Profile
    • JediDefender
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #152 on: September 9, 2008, 11:49 AM »
Both Rob and ruiner are projected to score less than 50 points for the rest of the year. You two might as well just turn it in now.
Big Damn Hero Productions

"Winter is coming."

Offline ruiner

  • Jedi Master
  • *
  • Posts: 5023
  • raised to be lowered
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #153 on: September 9, 2008, 11:59 AM »
Oh trust me, I turned it in on Sunday. 

Offline Rob

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Council Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20342
    • View Profile
    • Vitamin
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #154 on: September 9, 2008, 12:46 PM »
Both Rob and ruiner are projected to score less than 50 points for the rest of the year. You two might as well just turn it in now.

Yeah, it's a shame that Santonio Holmes and Chad Ocho Cinco are only going to score 25 or so points each this year, and that Joseph Addai is going to score under 60.  If only I'd drafted Willie Parker and his projected 456 points, I'd be golden.

Offline JediJman

  • Jedi Sentinel
  • *
  • Posts: 13631
  • Everyone is ignorant, but on different subjects.
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #155 on: September 9, 2008, 12:59 PM »

Right... Coming from someone who has taken plenty of college statistics classes, you simply don't predict an average for a data set when you only know one data point from the set. The error rate is so high that any projection is about as useful as throwing a dart while blindfolded. There is no reason any sane statistician would predict a season based on that. Especially after your QB, last years MVP and nearly the only reason Moss set the recieving TD record last year, goes down for the season. Now you have Cassel coming in, who has been a career backup, in both college and in the NFL. I wouldn't count Moss out completely either. but 1800 yds and 16 TDs is by no menas a reasonable prediction. Cassel isn't Brady, Belichek knows that. I'd expect to see the Pats running the ball more and throwing a bit less. Moss wanted to go to NE specifically becasue of Brady, with Brady out and Cassel in will Moss start to look more like he did in Oakland? That remians to be seen I guess, but you can be assured he won't be repeating what he did last year nor will he be getting 1800 yds and 16 TDs.




You're still missing the point. Limited data sets are used to PROJECT statistics all the time.  Its not a guarantee or even a prediction of performance, just an expanded view of how that data set would be extrapolated.  As someone who has taken many statistics classes, you should know this already. I think you're getting confused by terminology. 

The whole point of the conversation is that you shouldn't assume Moss is a bust just because Brady went down, and Sunday's performance helps show that.  None of us can predict the future, but its too early to say that he will be a flop or not worthy of a first round selection when went for 100+ yards and a TD sans Brady. 

Still haven't heard back from Scott on how he is going to pay me my $100 once Moss scores his 8th TD.   ;D
"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason. " -Jack Handey

Offline ruiner

  • Jedi Master
  • *
  • Posts: 5023
  • raised to be lowered
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #156 on: September 9, 2008, 01:01 PM »
If only I'd drafted Willie Parker and his projected 456 points, I'd be golden.

Eh, we could play that game all day. 

How do you think I feel?

 :-\

Offline Scott

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Guardian
  • *
  • Posts: 18218
  • Get Some
    • View Profile
    • JediDefender
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #157 on: September 9, 2008, 02:28 PM »
I think you're the one missing the point Justin, 3/4 of a football game with an unproven QB should not be used to extrapolate anything.  I've held that Randy Moss is the best receiver since 1998, better than TO or 85 or any others...he just hasn't had the QB skilled enough to get him the ball again until last year. 

If Randy Moss was on the Vikings again you think he would go for 1500 yards and 12+ TD's??

Online Dressel Rebel

  • Jedi General
  • *
  • Posts: 8416
  • En Sabah Nur
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #158 on: September 9, 2008, 03:03 PM »
I would guess this:

Brady to Moss in 2008: expect 1,500 yards and 15 TDs

Cassell to Moss in 2008: expect 1,000 yards and roughly 8 TDs

Denial or not, Moss' stock has dropped and Terrell Owens is now the #1 receiver in the game for 2008.
This is what happens when you invade Wakanda

Offline Rob

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Council Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20342
    • View Profile
    • Vitamin
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #159 on: September 9, 2008, 04:39 PM »
Alright, week one has come and gone.  I bought the stat tracker and everything is processed and working, but I still can't see the list of who's being added the most each week.  Can any of you guys see it or is it now only something you can get with fantasy football plus?  The page I'm looking for is called the Buzz Index in baseball and is right where it's always been.
 
« Last Edit: September 9, 2008, 05:17 PM by Rob »

Offline JediJman

  • Jedi Sentinel
  • *
  • Posts: 13631
  • Everyone is ignorant, but on different subjects.
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #160 on: September 9, 2008, 06:30 PM »
If Randy Moss was on the Vikings again you think he would go for 1500 yards and 12+ TD's??

No I don't because the Vikes are incompetent.  the Pats have the same line, same coach, and same surrounding cast ex. Brady.  He's a big factor, but not the only factor.  Moss was with a horrible team, with a horrible coach and he was banged up in Oakland...that's certainly not the same as where he's at now.  I will be shocked if he doesn't still get at least 10 TDs this year and he still has upside for much more than that even without Brady.  You're obviously not very confident in your estimate or you'd take my bet.  ;)

I'd also bet that someone beats out Owens for the #1 spot this year. 
"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason. " -Jack Handey

Offline Morgbug

  • Old
  • Jedi Guardian
  • *
  • Posts: 15954
  • mmm. pemmican.
    • View Profile
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #161 on: September 9, 2008, 09:26 PM »
I bought the stat tracker and everything is processed and working, but I still can't see the list of who's being added the most each week.  Can any of you guys see it or is it now only something you can get with fantasy football plus? 

From what I can see it appears now to be only with Plus.  I can't access it either. 
Minivans: a sign of the apocalypse.

Offline Rob

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Council Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20342
    • View Profile
    • Vitamin
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #162 on: September 9, 2008, 09:33 PM »
So how much does it cost to upgrade the league to plus?  I'm looking around but don't see it...  I only see a place where I can email the commissioner and ask him (you) to upgrade it...

Offline Scott

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Guardian
  • *
  • Posts: 18218
  • Get Some
    • View Profile
    • JediDefender
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #163 on: September 9, 2008, 09:41 PM »
I'll bet Justin...7.5 over under on Moss TD's for the year, loser buys a beer for the winner next meeting I get to

Offline Rob

  • Staff Member
  • Jedi Council Member
  • *
  • Posts: 20342
    • View Profile
    • Vitamin
Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« Reply #164 on: September 9, 2008, 09:51 PM »
I'd gladly take the over on that bet.