Author Topic: Speculate for me  (Read 1979 times)

Offline Morgbug

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Speculate for me
« on: August 19, 2005, 11:16 PM »
Nice title, eh? 

I've noticed JD is starting to get some hits by names I see infrequently, but know have some good opinions and knowledge (infinitely more than I) on the subject of vintage items.  Now despite the title this isn't a thread about finding bargains and flipping them for profit.  Rather it's the converse.  I'm interested in people's opinions on whether the movie year is driving vintage prices up? 

By way of example I'm currently trying to wrap up my vintage, loose Droids collection.  I've picked up a few of them and I'm down to the following I need:
Sise Fromm
Kez Iban
Kea Moll

I'm sorely wishing I'd picked up Kea Moll first, simply because she seems to have skyrocketed in most auctions.  You can still pick her up for $20-30 but many auctions top $50 (most, but not all are carded).  I'd passed on auctions about a year ago that ended above $15.  Should I regret it, or should I just wait it out? 

My real reason for asking is that I think my focus in the coming years will be increasingly vintage oriented.  I'd love to own a set of 12-backs or I may decide to try and finish the trilogo set (perhaps with some rather pricey exceptions).  I just love that trilogo stuff (must be a non-US mentality). 

Anyway, I'd love to hear what people have to say.  Is the market artificially inflated now.  Will the vintage material hold it's value 5 years out (I ask because I can wait that long to buy stuff) or will it potentially hold or even go up? 
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Offline Mike Mensinger

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2005, 12:05 AM »
Movie years do tend to attract more attention to the Star Wars franchise, and with that increased presence in the public eye new collectors enter the fold. I think the modern items tend to enjoy a heftier increase in attention since they are often considered more attainable to new collectors. Still, some arguably venture towards the vintage side fueled by nostalgic factors. On the flip side, non-movie years certainly account for disinterest to some extent for some collectors. Regardless of the ebbs and flows of collectors during these times, the Star Wars franchise is a strong one and the fan base is definitely, IMHO, large enough to sustain the collectability of vintage items over time.

Additionally, with such a broad range of vintage items to collect, it affords a person a seemingly unlimited range of categories to focus on. Tired of action figures? Try movie posters. Don't enjoy movie posters? Chase after food related premiums...and the list goes on and on. There's literally something for everyone to collect and enjoy in the vintage realm. That's never going to change.

In the end, it's terribly difficult to guage how high or how low interest in collecting Star Wars items will shift throughout the coming years. Regardless of that difficulty, it's easy to view the vast numbers of dedicated collectors in existence at this time, and I feel that number is large enough where the market can live through a possible drop out of some collectors.

-Mike

Offline CorranHorn

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2005, 02:14 AM »
I think it's been rather hit and miss this time around for an increase in prices in vintage items. Just speaking on my own experiences on eBay this year, I've been able to find (though not necessarily capitalize on) a lot of deals that in the past few years I just did not see. But that doesn't mean the value of vintage is dropping, it just may not be stable at the moment with consumer speculation at a high. As Mike indicated, interest may start to wane the farther we get away from ROTS' release, however I don't think we're ever going to see a huge sudden decrease in the values of items based on the number of collectors that will still be out there.

In the last 10 years that the modern line has been around, we have seen hundreds of new toys, including resculpts of almost all of the vintage figures and the re-use of all the main vehicle sculpts. We have also seen 3 new movies and 3 special editions of the Original Trilogy, but none of that has caused a dramatic decrase in the overall value of vintage toys. If the vintage toy line could sustain all that and the hobby could grow despite all of that, I can't imagine that as we move on through the years that we'll see a stark difference.

Offline Matt_Fury

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2005, 06:15 PM »
Although I pretty much stopped collecting vintage in 1985, I do look around occaisionally just in case I decide to get back into it and here's what I've noticed:

I think the movie year has pushes some of the prices up just because there is some renewed interest, but as always, if you look around, you can find what you want for a good price.
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Offline Rob

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2005, 11:19 AM »
I'm in a similar boat - missing about 8 figures to complete a mint, loose vintage set.

I have basically taken the year off - thinking that it might be better to look in late 2005/2006.

Offline bobafett14

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2005, 12:10 AM »
Well, my opinion is that EP III seems to be a little different than EP I and II.

EPI and EP II seemd to see vintage prices jump a good bit, to later settle.  For some reason, now with EP III prices are all over the board on everything both vintage and modern.

There are some vinatge pieces that seem to go for 3 times what they were months ago, yet, at the same time there are some absolute steals on some vintage items.  Certain figs seemed to not have budged, vehicles and playsets don't seem to be going real high, oddball stuff can be found pretty easily and very affordable.

I can;t explain, maybe only that there's been just so much stuff produced over the last few years, and all the influx of the modern for EP III maybe has put a "lull" on vintage for a small time period?

I wouldn;t worry, I think it will be strong in the long run, but when I see a modern Clone Wars Anakin starfighter go on Ebay for over $90 (that had been sitting on shelves a year ago) and Unleashed figs for over $100 (that also had been peqwarming just 6 months ago) and vintage boxed vehicles go for $30 or less (that are almost 30 years old), to me thats just screwy, and I couldn't explain it in a million years.
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Offline Morgbug

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2006, 08:30 PM »


Anyway, I'd love to hear what people have to say.  Is the market artificially inflated now.  Will the vintage material hold it's value 5 years out (I ask because I can wait that long to buy stuff) or will it potentially hold or even go up? 

I thought I'd bump this back up to see some opinions again.  I was personally expecting prices to drop off a bit towards this point, a year after the release of ROTS.  In my opinion though, prices of vintage in general still seem to be up.  Bargains can and always will be had, but generally items seem to be higher than they were even a year ago and those were higher than a year prior to that. 

POTF carded stuff seems crazy high these days, as are 12 backs.  Used to be you could score a 12 back Stormtrooper for under $200 pretty easily in really nice shape, not so any more. 

Even the former dregs of the vintage lines, the Droids and Ewoks have climbed to goofy points with Wicket running $40-50 pretty easily these days.

What gives?
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Offline DSJ™

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2006, 10:33 PM »
What gives?

Vintage is hot, more than the modern crap with all the rehashes. People are sick of it. It's a nostalgic feeling.  ;)

Offline evenflow

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2006, 11:47 AM »
I think the prices are inflated right now and will eventually go back down a bit. Sadly it really help me. All the figures i need will never go down to a reasonable price.
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Offline john todd

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2006, 05:44 PM »
vintage has really spiked right now.  most of the figures i need were pegwarmers like the ugnaught or weequay, but i am having a hard time buying anything when i know that i could have gotten these figures on pretty nice cards for $25 a couple years ago, but now it would be more like $40-50

i posted an auction recently for a leia combat poncho.  i was ready to shell out the dough and pay $40  for it and it went for $143.  the way things have been fluctuating, i haven't bought much lately, and probably won't unless prices come back down to a level i am more comfortable with.

Offline vardcore

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #10 on: July 3, 2006, 01:03 AM »
I think the re-issued ships and things like that created a drop for the similar vintage vehicles. A-Wing used to be $200 loose... what is it now? Still, vintage over modern anyday... the vast majority of the modern figures dropped way down over time. If you ever want to collect modern, wait a couple years. 90% of it will be super cheap, less than retail.

Offline ruiner

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2006, 03:25 PM »
vardcore is right.

The re-release of some key ships has taken it's toll on their vintage "originals."  The skiff and imperial shuttle come to mind right off the bat.

In all honesty, taking your modern $$ budget and buying vintage figures is the smart thing to do if you're after nostalgia and collectibility. 

The vintage stuff is like land - they don't make it anymore!

 :P
« Last Edit: August 14, 2006, 03:25 PM by ruiner »

Offline CanadianCollector

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #12 on: October 6, 2006, 01:45 PM »
It all balances out.

Sure I paid $210 for a Mint loose shuttle and $100 for a Mint loose never played with Y-Wing.

BUT, I've managed to buy 2 A-Wings in the last few years for $50-$70 each.  And one of these days I'll get around to picking up a loose skiff.

One item that's still hot though is the Sandcrawler.  Loose or boxed, it's still commanding a premium. 

-Mike
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Offline Twofoot

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Re: Speculate for me
« Reply #13 on: October 7, 2006, 03:25 PM »
I believe the reason the droids figures are now costing a lot more is because more and more collectors are completing their loose star wars figures and now want to collect the droids and ewoks figures. As there are far fewer droids and ewok figures available it has driven the prices way up and i cant see them droping to anywhere near the low prices they were a few years ago.