Sony would be stupid to take Spider-Man out of the MCU.
Yes, Sony would be stupid to take Spider-Man out of the MCU and that's why they're not going to do it.
All of the talk this week about what can happen with the sharing arrangement, blah blah blah. At the end of the day, Spider-Man: Far From Home is approaching $850M worldwide and internationally, without taking into account inflation, it's the highest grossing Spider-man movie to date.
Sony knows that the reason it's doing this well is because it's connected to the MCU. People are coming to the theater to see it to see how it connects and continues to the MCU story.
Personally, I think Venom did well because people were hoping for a Deadpool-like take on the Venom character (which they only sorta got) and they thought it was tied to the MCU (and may have been surprised to learn it wasn't). I think Matt is right, there will be a lot of folks who basically stay away from the sequel to Venom because they will know that Spider-man won't be in it and it's not tied to the MCU narrative.
Quite frankly, the team at Sony should be going to Marvel Studios and Kevin Feige and saying that they want to put up the $$$ to have at least one movie a year, hand over creative control and let Marvel Studios go wild. There is still a way, before any other Venom-verse (or Sony-verse or whatever they're calling it) movies come out that they can "fix" things. You could always just say that the events of Venom took place mid-way through the blip, people in San Francisco were trying to move on and Carlton Drake, an Elon Musk-like billionaire was running his own space exploration program out of the Life Foundation. He didn't come up on the Avengers radar and Tony Stark who would normally snoop around in the business of other tech geniuses was busy on his farm with Pepper and Morgan.
I think most fans would welcome this, it would strengthen the franchises on both sides because it would allow Marvel Studios/Feige to FREELY incorporate Spidey villains into the MCU.