Yeah, I don't know where the overproduce part came from. My local WMs and Targets are just now starting to fully restock shelves after being virtually empty since Christmas, and I've heard from a LEGO Store manager that he was really frustrated with LEGO's own internal distribution (our local store along with others in Texas were unable to get certain sets like the UCS Falcon in mass quantities while Amazon can)
Then again, my area is awful for toys in general, so I could be in some void and everyone else is stuck with piles of sets.
Biggest thing to me has been the rising prices and the sheer amount of sets. TLJ for example, in the September wave, had THREE sets priced over $100 MSRP, one at $80, one at $50, and the cheapest set was $30. That's not quite affordable for the average kid/family, nor does it appeal to the average parent/grandparent looking to buy a small set as a reward. Then just three months later, another wave of TLJ sets were released, and most of those were poor sets, even if they were more affordable.