2021 HasLab - Black Series Rancor

[Jeff]

~6040 backers as of 2pm CT today
~2960 backers needed to fund the project
~12960 backers needed to unlock all tiers

Ending in 9 hours:
~2960 / 9 = ~329.9 backers/hr to fund (or 5.5 backers every minute!)
~12960 / 9 = ~1140 backers/hr to unlock all tiers

[Matt_Fury]

13 minutes later and it's over 6,100.  Looks like the rate of backers is accelerating.  There's people speculating that Hasbro has the number it needs to get it backed with international orders and they just haven't included them in the numbers yet.

[JediJman]

Shenanigans.  The smart thing to do here would be to order 2, then sell one of your orders minutes after it hits the threshold for a 50% upcharge.  Voila - half priced Rancor!

[Jeff]

There's people speculating that Hasbro has the number it needs to get it backed with international orders and they just haven't included them in the numbers yet.

That has been the rumor... but at the same time, the Hasbro team has said on a couple of the different live-streams that global numbers are already included - here's an example.  Not sure what to believe on that anymore.

[Nicklab]

The pace is picking up a bit.  I wonder if some of that is panic buying?  It’s around 6150 right now.  I’ll be interested to see where it is around 8 or 9 pm.

[Jeff]

~6230 backers as of 3pm CT today
~2770 backers needed to fund the project
~12770 backers needed to unlock all tiers

Ending in 8 hours:
~2770 / 8 = ~346.25 backers/hr to fund
~12770 / 8 = ~1596.25 backers/hr to unlock all tiers


The pace is picking up... just not fast enough yet.

8am CT - 11am CT = 0.6 backers/min
11am CT - noon CT = 0.8 backers/min
noon CT - 2pm CT = 1.5 backers/min
2pm CT - 3pm CT = 3.2 backers/min

[Rob]

The pace is picking up a bit.  I wonder if some of that is panic buying?  It’s around 6150 right now.  I’ll be interested to see where it is around 8 or 9 pm.

It'll be wherever Hasbro wants it to be. 

[JediJman]

Time	Minutes	Count	New	Rate
11:21	-	5834	-	-
11:26	5	5839	5	1.0
11:27	1	5840	1	1.0
11:29	2	5842	2	1.0
11:33	4	5848	6	1.5
11:34	1	5849	1	1.0
12:09	35	5876	27	0.8
12:21	11	5886	10	0.9
12:23	2	5887	1	0.5
2:17	114	6118	231	2.0
2:30	13	6144	26	2.0
2:37	7	6159	15	2.1
3:12	35	6256	97	2.8
4:00	48	6349	93	1.9
4:05	5	6362	13	2.6
4:11	6	6381	19	3.2

      
                              
Increased rate of acceleration.  Don't worry, they'll start get to the dozens needed per minute by the end of the day.   

[Rob]

All that negativity.... no reaction to the Rancor Keeper bandaid, and suddenly it's ramping up enough that it's probably going to get made.

I'm glad for anyone who wants it, but this all feels extremely fake to me. 

[JediJman]

I'm glad for anyone who wants it, but this all feels extremely fake to me.

Agree 1000%.  Bet there is some intern plugging away at the numbers all night to get us past 9k.

[Matt_Fury]

I agree, Rob.  I didn't like the negativity from the perpetually outraged crowd, but there was a lot of fan backlash when the last two stretch goals were announced, and I have never seen a Haslab lose so many backers like the Rancor did.

So did Hasbro's scramble in adding the Rancor Keeper satiate the fans?  Are there some behind the scenes shenanigans going on at Hasbro right now?  It's most likely both.

[GrandMoffNick]

I forsee 9523

[JediJman]

I'm really surprised they don't just drop an extra 1500.  If they get within 1000 with a good chunk of time left I think you'll start to see the panic button go off for a lot of people that don't want to miss out or people who think they can make some money buying a few extra of these.

[Jeff]

~6464 backers as of 5pm CT today
~2536 backers needed to fund the project
~12536 backers needed to unlock all tiers

Ending in 6 hours:
~2536 / 6 = ~422.7 backers/hr to fund
~12536 / 6 = ~2089.3 backers/hr to unlock all tiers

[Jeff]

~6705 backers as of 7pm CT today (241 the past 2 hours)
~2295 backers needed to fund the project
~12295 backers needed to unlock all tiers

Ending in 4 hours:
~2295 / 4 = ~573.75 backers/hr to fund
~12295 / 4 = ~3073.75 backers/hr to unlock all tiers