I'm confused - why do you think it's 1:48 instead of 1:96?
It breaks down like this.
First it depends on how many chase figures there are.
Then you have to make an assumption that there are roughly equal distributed amounts for both cases originating from both Hong Kong and Japan.
So if that is true, if you bought a master case, it would contain one of the two chase figures if there were two chase figures. So your probability of recieving chase #1 is 1/96 and the chance at recieving chase #2 is 1/96.
You probability of recieving chase #1 OR chase #2 is 1/48.If there is only one chase figure the distribution is fixed at
1/48.
If there are two chase figures the distribution is fixed at
1/96.
If there are three chase figures the distribution is fixed at
1/192.
By chase I mean major chase figures not minor ones like those packed 4/48.I'm hoping there is only one chase figure so that the odds stay at the rather hospitable 1/48 level.