Yep, historically guys have hit on chase figures from retailers previously. I've never had the luck, but others ordering from HLJ.com scored. BBTS is probably the same.
I think if the retailer isn't offering up chase figures either in the online store or from their ebay account, then you have decent odds. If they are selling stuff separately, then yeah, they've probably figured out where the figures are just like folks here have.
As for buying chase figures on ebay, I don't think there's a big hurry. Not much on there yet, so most cases probably aren't even at their destination yet. Those of us that order from Robby.jp get them pretty fast, only a week or so behind Japan, so many people won't have them yet. The minor chase (Wedge) will drop in price for a while and the other "big" chase figures will settle out around the $100 mark for a bit. Then probably climb once they make it into collectors hands.
Now, there's this funny little box beside me....