I think we are in some new territory for chase figures, here are a few reasons:
The cases- the last 5 series had 2 semi-rares (2/48) and 2 rares (1/96)
Series 7 semi rare: Blue senate guard. Rares: Yakface and old school spirit anakin
Series 6 semi rare: Wedge. Rares: Tarkin and Veers
Series 5 semi rare: Han Endor. Rares: Ponda Baba and Blue Snaggletooth
Series 4 semi rare: Han or Luke stormtrooper. Rare: Dagobah Darth
Series 3 semi rare: Han hibernation sickness. Rares- Logray and vinyl Jawa
Series 2 had the two different sandtroopers, but every box had a white pauldron sandtrooper. It also had the two different cantina band figures, but as far as we can tell they were produced in pretty much the same numbers. Indiana Jones was the only super chase in this set.
Series 1 had 2 rares (2 different Bobas) but no common chase, if that is even a phrase.
So Series 4-6 were pretty comparable for the number and ratios of rares. The rares have hovered around the $100-120 range. Series 3 is a bit outside the average, with Logray and vinyl jawa showing up more rarely and going for a bit more.
With all of that said, I think there a few reasons the series 8 chases will be more expensive.
# 1, the dollar. The real currency in the world is oil, and dollars buy less of it than they used to. Since these are a world market toy, and bidders from all countries bid, I expect collecting to simply cost us more.
# 2, the cases. The lack of a "common" chase means each master case has less resell value, and less pieces to put on the market. The second common chase piece was something of a bonus- you could sell it to defray some of your initial expenses, or if it was cool (or in the case of series 4) you could keep or trade it for the other. Factor in that a number of cases shipped to different people had no "rare" chase, and we can only assume the rares are more rare than they have been in recent series.
# 3, the prequels consumers. The collecting community that embraces all of the movies equally or (shudder) prefers the new, is a definate wildcard in the kubrick world. I recently auctioned off a fairly substantial lot of clones, and was shocked at what they went for. There is an audience there with money looking for new product or maybe a niche type collection.
Add on to # 2 that news of the scarcity is still limited to groups pretty much in the know about these things. As the series lingers and more people realize the rares are harder to find, speculation may very well increase the prices.
So, the pessimist in me says Jar Jar is probably at least as valuable as Dagobah Darth. His case ratio appears to be the same, and Dagobah Darth is a 10 second movie side-trail, Jar jar is pivotal in the first movie and arguably the entire series.
Add to that the rare-less cases, and I think these are going to end up being closer to the series 3 range.
The one piece that could alter all of this substantially is production numbers. And medicom doesn't talk about those things any more than Hasbro does. Production numbers seems to be the difference between the 2004/2005 box sets and the 2007 set, a magnitude of 600% when it comes to current prices.
So only time will answer the question, but I didn't waste any time getting my missing pieces.