If you look at how previous Marvel movie figure lines have performed, it seems very likely that Hasbro over-produced product for Iron Man 2, Thor and Captain America - The First Avenger. Even though those movies did very well at the box office, their action figure lines didn't really follow suit. Witness Hasbro scaling back on the figure line for The Avengers, which had some of the biggest box office numbers of all time.
I would argue the point that Hasbro went too far afield in the IM2 and Cap film lines...there was far too much non-movie product too early. They need to get a grip on the established play patterns. You need the bad guy available on the shelf to help sell the hero. You need a line that lends itself to collecting them all. 50 versions of one character available on day one or 50 characters available for a movie that only highlighted six of them show Hasbro has forgotten the formula. 10-20 figures as the movie necessitates. When the line is a success you come back to the table to add depth. Repeat until you can't sell anymore.
We've been down this road in regards to how many hero characters should be released in relation to villains, etc. There's the argument that movie studios may be intervening in an effort to avoid spoilers, too. And I agree that from A COLLECTORS STANDPOINT there seem to be too many versions of the hero character and not enough of the villains. But look at us: we're Star Wars collectors. Over time, we've really come to almost fetishize the Imperials! And that's because they're such classically designed villains.
But back on topic? What we don't know is how are all of those varying hero figures are actually selling. Hasbro and the retailers have that sales data, and that data is probably shaping the nature of these lines.
And let's look at one line that DOES have diversity in terms of both hero and villain characters: The Avengers. The film was released in April of 2012, and the figures began to be available for at least a month or two before the film's release. AND it had relative character diversity. There were only a few versions of each main character. And in the case of one Iron Man that was just a stretch? Buyers/collectors essentially passed. But was this particular line the exception? It's an interesting thing to look at. And again, this particular movie could be an anomaly, since it was one of the highest grossing movies in box office history. But perhaps it is a clear indicator of one one thing: perhaps a movie needs to be as big as something like Avengers in order to support a toy line.
And that's something that perhaps the toy industry needs to get back to: making a licensed toy line a special thing. Because now we're in an age where a large number of summer movies are trying to field a toy line. Why? Because there's big money in that sort of licensing agreement. But I think we're in a spot where things need to be dealt with in some sense of scale. How do you figure out which movies should offer a proportionally scaled toy line? That's the tough part. But I think we're getting there.