I really believe what I said, this line will not live past 2006.  I thought at one time they might be able to squeeze it until 2008 but there is no way that will ever happen.

The margain on the line is so razor thin that the excess sales they once enjoyed no longer makes it possible to produce NEW and HIGH quality product at the same time.  They have started to:

Reuse Parts
Reissue Old Figures
Cut costs on Materials
Cut production Numbers (anyone remember the gluts of the 97-99 time frame...there would be new figures almost daily)
Little to no advertising
Refuse to issue any new figures for the release of the DVD's
Things like not issuing the dais for Jabba
Hit and Miss Articulation and joint issues on new figures (instead of going all out, leave one arm with elbow articulation and the other without kind of stuff)

Which is why they extended the contract until 2018 they have to squeeze every single damn penny out of the line that they can

The biggest problem I see with that is all of these moves are really starting to alienate the fan base as a whole.  I've seen nothing but complaints about these OTC figure reissues.  I see the logic but I also ask why not produce NEW figures that Newbie DVD inspired collectors and old fossils can both pick up.  That is what the Bib represents to me...a kick in the teeth.  I don't really think a new Bib was necessary but a TON of people do and want one and for them to pull that one smacks of cheapness and being totally out of touch with the fan base.

So I really think this will result in reduced sales which in turn will mean retailers dropping everything at Toy Fair 2006.  Maybe they can hit 2007 I just am not too optomistic

How to Change THings:
#1 They really need to take a page out of Fan Relations 101 from Playmates, Palisades and Toy Biz and have a real voice within the community and not the secrecy they operate the line with

#2 Release NEW figures even if they are resculpts, people in general have gotten over the resculpt P&M that was commonplace in the late 90's and that's mainly due to the superior molding they have been doing

#3 Go all out on each and every figure.  Bring back the good plastic, keep with the SuperArticulation

#4 Have fan polls more often

#5 Have Web chats

Ugh, I'm sort of disgusted after a few months of some rock solid work out of RI.  My 3 cents

I guess I'm suprised at my pessimism too, just looking at what has happened at retail this year to me means that current toy line models need to be thrown out the window and new agressive fan friendly ways of catering toy lines need to happen

And with that said, one only needs to look at the Muppets line, the epitome of good will and having a symbiotic management/fan base community and see that even then the line is on shaky legs having been dropped by almost everyone but etailers and specialty stores.

The kid aspect of this line is one that is often understated, I found comments by Jesse Falcon in a recent interview about Marvel Legends that the impulse buyer outweighs the collector so far in retail sales that its not even close.  That is one way this line probably will succeed.   Core characters, great new packaging and the DVD hype will intice Suzy Q. Soccermom to pick up some of the figures for Spoiled T Brat sitting in the cart.  BUT, the big BUT, new figures would have sold better (even resculpts)  I'm hoping for POTJish distribution and not some EpI type roll out and thing will be OK.  We shall see, I'm not optomistic though after a few months of sun shine

I would agree.

Would anyone have guessed that the juggernaut MotU/He-Man line would die off so quick?

Simpsons WoS figures sold like hotcakes, then nothing - blah.

Even the Marvel Legends line that was so hot seems to have died off.

With the current economy, more and more toys are feeling the hurt.  Collectors don't have the money to throw around so willy-nilly anymore and are more careful about what they buy.

I'd have to opt for pessimism too.  I think we are on the downward slope of the Action Figure collecting world.  The big companies overwhelm the fan base with a TON of crap and the fan base dies off.  It happens to everything (baseball cards, comics etc.).  

Remember the hype of a few years back when it seemed like every dang Independent comics character was getting an action figure?  Now they are all piled up in a giant $2 bin at my comic store, including the HTF or "rare" crystal/glow-in-the-dark/nudie chase variants that came along.

I think that Action figure days are dying.  Every movie that comes along spews AFs into the aisles and then the figures just sit.  It's just taking a year or two longer to kill off SW because the Fan Base is that much larger.

It's sad, but I am starting to see the writing on the wall.  I'll take September 2006 in the JD.com SW Death Pool.  I don't expect ther to be ANY new Star Wars figures in the back-to-school Toy aisle resets that indicate we are heading into the start of the Christmas 2006 shopping season.

I wonder though what the next big thing will be?  Cards to Comics to Action Figures to ?  


Jeff

It's sad, but I am starting to see the writing on the wall.  I'll take September 2006 in the JD.com SW Death Pool.  I don't expect ther to be ANY new Star Wars figures in the back-to-school Toy aisle resets that indicate we are heading into the start of the Christmas 2006 shopping season.

I agree.  Jeff, we are thinking along the same lines.  I  don't think the line, as we know it, will last past the summer of 06.  If there is a live or cartoon SW series, that could prolong the dying of the line but I'd be very surprised to see new figures by the beginning of 07.  

I believe one point that was mentioned above isn't entirely correct.  The OTC is not only geared to kids who fall in love with the trilogy for the first time with these DVD's.  It's not geared to fans who have wholes in there collection either.  These spiffy new cards are also geared to the carded collector.  The problem is Hasbro is causing the hobby to lose lots of carded collectors.  Just look at how many of us are loose collectors.  Look at how many more collectors turn into loose collectors.

Here's a look into the future when the Prequel Special Edition's hit DVD.  PTC with repacks of Ep.1 Midnight Madness figures and Ep.2  Midnight Madness figures.  Can you imagine Anakin (Peasant Disguise) on a new card?  SW figures collecting is on the downside of the hill unless something changes quick.

Scott's covered a lot of what my opinion is...

My last hope is a media blitz that is SUCCESSFUL.  Clone Wars was, for what I've seen and heard, a success.  It was financially not full of pitfalls in the core brands, and with that, I think Hasbro CAN sustain life after Star Wars films.

The problem is, what will LFL do that Hasbro's going to NEED just to stay alive?  

Clone Wars basic figures killed...  Vehicles (new ones anyway) seemed to do well for a time at least.  

Short of this (and this would be a miracle because Hasbro's teamwork with other licenses in the past have failed and SOME aspects of Clone Wars have failed), I cannot imagine Star Wars living long beyond the films.

I'd be slightly more liberal than Scott...  I'd say 2008 as an absolute LATEST breath...  I think there's a SLIGHT ability to maintain a skimpy license on no "fuel" or future for 3 years past a film.  I believe this because the original line lasted, and they didn't have a core collecting (adult) audience at the time.

I give Hasbro that maximum...  I'd say 2007 as my solid guess though.  One year after the last film?  I dunno, that's a little early in my view...  I think you've gotta imagine there's still some hype in 2006 trickling from the film.

So I'm going with 2007-2008...  If it goes beyond that, I would only imagine it's a successful tie-in to games, books, comics, and the BIG question is, "Can Lucasfilm, in conjunction with Hasbro and other licensees, make a TV series that actually appeals to kids, adults, and strangers to the brand"?  

They pull this off, they can eek out more years if they DO THE LINE JUSTICE.  They don't and they'll run the line dry at the minimum cost.  Things will piddle out.

And I'll look at my collection, take a big sigh, and start listing what it is I need to make myself, and make ultimately better than Hasbro would've anyway.  

All excellent points guys.   Not much to add after that barrage of insight, but I guess I can point out who/what I generally agree with...

I don't think the line will die off as soon as Scott thinks.  I'm more with Jess, in that I think it can run at least into 2007, on the Ep. 3 hype alone.  The majority of the initial hype will get it through a year pretty easily I think, and the remaining adult collectors can drive it another year beyond that I think, provided Hasbro plays along and offers some new OT stuff, of course.

Scott's points of Hasbro getting more in touch with, and really communicating with it's Star Wars collecting fanbase are very valid, and something we've long begged for.  I do agree that if the line is going to live on for any length of time beyond a couple years, they've absolutely got to at least listen to us a bit more, and make a few appropriate changes to keep a lot of the adult collectors around.  They've done this sporadically in the past, and have shown us that they DO read through the forums, but what drives me virtually insane is that whenever we start getting down in the dumps, Hasbro springs some really promising news, ideas, designs on us to really boost our spirits back up.  But then shortly thereafter, they seem to be content in knowing they've kept us around longer, and they revert back to a bunch of absolute horse$h!t figures and ideas.  It seems to be a never-ending cycle now.  That's why I'm expecting Hasbro to surprise us relatively soon with some good all-new figure announcements, to make up for hitting us with that checklist of recarded rehash garbage.  They read the boards.  They know we're all pissed off now, and I think they'll likely try to boost our spirits once again pretty soon...

Speaking of that new OTC checklist...  It's a mixed bag here, as far as what Hasbro's thinking, and what consumer reaction will be.  Obviously these aren't your average recards, since the OTC design is so freakin' beautiful.  So I think a lot of the carded collectors will go ahead and scoop 'em all up without too much of a gripe.  I've also heard a lot of loose collectors say that they're thinking about buying some of these to actually keep carded, since they look so nice.  That will obviously help make up for the fact that most loose collectors won't otherwise be rebuying a lot of these older figures, if but only a little.

So to further make up for the lack of loose collectors involvement, I think Hasbro's (mistakenly?) thinking that they're going to reel in the kids again, with the DVD marketing push.  Sure, they'll pick up a few of them for several months perhaps, but as always - the adult collectors will be the folks that determine the life of the line.  But I think the kids will at least scoop up some of the super-duper rehashes, like Luke, Han, Leia & Vader that we're pretty much sick to death of seeing.

Fortunately, there's a decent number of potential army builders and custom fodder in that list too - 13 or so by my count.  So those should all sell pretty well still.  Plus, that list includes most of the recently issued Saga figures, which some people may still have some trouble finding in stores right now, as the Saga line winds down and stores are cutting back on their orders of it.  So I think those will also potentially move reasonably well.  I do however see the OTC vehicles, with those terrible old molds, sitting around damn near forever.  Big time flop coming with those piece of garbage.

I think what I'm saying here, is that I believe the OTC figure line will do fine at retail.  Not spectacular, and sure there's going to be the usual alotment of some solid pegwarmers, but I think it'll move for the most part.  BUT, what it's not going to do is give the majority of us collectors a good feeling about the line in general, and it's future.  It's not really enhancing any of our collections, especially the loose ones, any further outside of the Dagobah and Bespin waves.  But if Hasbro's smart, and knows we're all down in the dumps right now, they'll soon announce a few more assortments for the OTC line - a Cantina group of aliens for starters.  Then all will be good again in Star Wars collecting land.


Perhaps they'll make a push for more of the VOTC styled figures, and surprise us with another assortment of those instead.  Either way, I think we've still got some good surprises coming near the end of this year, or early in 2005.  But if this recarded crap ain't your thing, at least it gives you some time to save up your moolah for C3, and the final Ep. 3 onslaught of merchandise.  

I'd like to see some Expanded Universe stuff before it dies.