2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina

[Rob]

I feel the same way. I think today would have needed to have more movement to get to 17,000. 

I honestly haven’t been too overwhelmed by the surge this time around up to this point.  Comparing this to Ghost and Razorcrest really makes me believe that the Disney era fans have taken over, even though we know that’s been true for a long time.

[Muftak]

My takeaway from this is less Lucas era vs Disney Era, and more vehicles vs playsets.

We know there are a finite number of action figure collectors left in the market. Shrinking production numbers and rising prices have shown us that the last few years.

The fact that the Ghost and the Razorcrest could sell 20k+ units would indicate there is a market BEYOND action figure buyers for, really cool, really detailed vehicles as standalone display pieces that don't require an action figure collection to look good on display.

Sadly that just isn't there for a playset. The Cantina needs action figures in context to become a cool display. That costs them a huge chunk of previous HasLab buyers.

Not unsurprisingly, the numbers for the Cantina right now look a whole lot like the gleaned sales figures for the Boba Fett Throne Room playset. 10k or so seems to be the market for a diorama playset.

The next 24 hours will give good insight into the "HasLab as an exclusive action figure delivery sysystem. If figures start unlocking and we gain several thousand more backers, then to me that says figure collectors have just gotten comfortable with the prospect of $67-$133 per figure. Which I honestly don't know how to feel about.

This has been so interesting to watch play out.

[Rob]

That’s true but don’t forget the sizable number of people who keep things in the box.

[Jeff]

Day  7 - 4800 (24+ days left)
Day 10 - 4979 (21+ days left)
Day 17 - 5708 (14+ days left)
Day 24 - 6458 (7+ days  left)
Day 25 - 6599 (6+ days left)
Day 26 - 7026 (5+ days left)
Day 27 - 7668 (4+ days left)
Day 28 - 8149 (85+ hours left).
Day 28 - 8756 (72+ hours left)
Day 29 - 9014 (58+ hours left)
Day 30 - 9546 (37+ hours left)
Day 30 - 10121, 26.5 hours to go...

My admittedly not perfect model (based on average TVC HasLab getting 45% of backers in the last week) put us around 12,000 as the endpoint. 
4800 first week (40%) - 1800 middle (15%) - 5400 (45%) = 12k backers

In order to get Nabrun unlocked, we need 53% in the last week (and a BIG last day). 
4800 (34%) - 1800 (13%) - 7400 (53%) = 14k backers

Not impossible.  Will be a fun ride watching it play out overnight and tomorrow.  Fingers crossed we can get Nabrun unlocked!

[Matt_Fury]

Tomorrow is going to be interesting.

[Matt_Fury]

14 hours to go and we're at 352 away from unlocking Greedo.  Could this project only unlock one tier?

[Jeff]

Day  7 - 4800 (24+ days left)
Day 10 - 4979 (21+ days left)
Day 17 - 5708 (14+ days left)
Day 24 - 6458 (7+ days  left)
Day 25 - 6599 (6+ days left)
Day 26 - 7026 (5+ days left)
Day 27 - 7668 (4+ days left)
Day 28 - 8149 (85+ hours left).
Day 28 - 8756 (72+ hours left)
Day 29 - 9014 (58+ hours left)
Day 30 - 9546 (37+ hours left)
Day 30 - 10121 (26.5 hours left)
Final Day - 10675, 14.5 hours to go..

Could this project only unlock one tier?

Unlocking only one tier has been the most likely outcome since I started tracking the math weeks ago.  The odds of unlocking Nabrun have ranged from 30% to 67% depending on the day.  We are going to need a big push today to get anything beyond Greedo AND we have to hope that people do not start cancelling orders at the last minute when they realize that we are not unlocking everything...

[Rob]

If it’s really only going to unlock one tier, I’m going to be very tempted to order a second set.  Smaller numbers probably mean more value later and I’m not beyond buying a second to help pay for mine. 

[Nicklab]

Less than 300 to go to Greedo.

[Matt_Fury]

We need another 3,251 for Nabrun with 13 and a half hours to go.  I'm not saying it's impossible, but it will be tight.

I remember insane numbers in the last hours for the Ghost to get Zeb unlocked...and it went way over.  I wonder if we'll see a few last moment dumps of "international orders" that we've seen in past Haslabs.

[StBrianOfMinneapolis]

Maybe they have a deal to sell off 4000-6000 units to online vendors to make up the balance. Who knows?

Also, did they ever post a picture of adding the deluxe side of the cantina with only the alcove arches and furniture? My thought is to look past the seated patrons and through the arches at the rest of the cantina. Maybe that's a way to display it all in one piece without walling off the whole horizontal perspective of the scene?

[McMetal]

My opinion all along has been that none of the tiers should have been viewed as a given. I think they will be lucky to get to Greedo at this point.

I seriously keep bouncing back and forth on this one…may come down to an impulse decision for me later tonight.

[Dave]

I don't think finishing right around a US holiday weekend is helping this get a last minute boost.

[Nicklab]

The numbers have been marching steadily upward today.  I can see hitting the 11,000 mark within an hour or so.  And the pace tends to pick up towards the end of the day.

I think the speculators are going to swoop in this afternoon and the numbers will soar.  The Sail Barge was originally $500, and regularly sells for $2K or more on the secondary market.  And it had the lowest production numbers of any of the Star Wars TVC Haslab campaigns.  If the Tonnika Sisters and Wuher are limited to less than 15K produced of each of them?  The secondary market on those will go bananas.

[Jeff]

Day 28 - 8149 (85+ hours left).
Day 28 - 8756 (72+ hours left)
Day 29 - 9014 (58+ hours left)
Day 30 - 9546 (37+ hours left)
Day 30 - 10121 (26.5 hours left)
Final Day - 10675 (14.5 hours left)
Final Day - 10865 (12 hours left)
Final Day - 10905, 11.5 hours to go...

I remember insane numbers in the last hours for the Ghost to get Zeb unlocked...

The Ghost got about 6835 backers in the final 24 hours (~30% of the total backers came in the last day).  If the Cantina can do that (30% in the last day), we'd end around 14.6k.  Totally possible but requires a big uptick in the backer rate.