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Messages - Morgbug

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1
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: July 1, 2015, 10:27 PM »
Jeff, thanks for the explanation on the losses.  I wasn't really worried about the Wild regardless, I'd think they would be one of the far more stable "small" U.S. franchises.  It is interesting, especially since the city lost the North Stars previously, that there isn't more interest in regular season games.  Winnipeg is different, for any number of reasons.  We were without the franchise for longer than you guys were.  We obviously have far less competition from other sports at higher levels, though we really don't watch much high school hockey, but then our amateur sports have never been as well supported by fans as they are in the U.S.  Canada is just weird that way.  But really it's the prevailing feeling that we could actually lose the team again that seems to drive our season ticket sales.  We're coming onto year three of renewals and the first two years were renewal rates @ 97%.  The 3% not renewed were snapped up in no time at all, but that happens with an 8000 person wait list for season tickets. 

Interesting Kessel in Pittsburgh.  Very talented hockey player but wonder how damaged his attitude is. 

Thought the Granlund contract was pretty nice so well done Wild.

We of course let Frolik walk much to my dismay.  Signed Stafford to 8.7 over two years, so great term and ok AAV but I'd have rather had Frolik for the money and term he got from Calgary than from Stafford.  There's got to be something else going on there with Frolik/Chevy that prevented a signing - could be Fro's agent.  He hosed Chevy on Pavelec so that may have played a role.

Also signed Burmistrov back after a two year KHL hiatus.  Be very interesting to see what happens with him.  He's never going to be a 60 point player but he's got real nice possession numbers and assuming he's playing with Lowry as his center, that could be a sneaky dangerous and frustrating line to play against. 

Oh and Chicago extended Anisomov so that makes that Saad trade look better already though I know the Hawks fans don't feel like it. 

2
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: July 1, 2015, 01:26 AM »

I think you mean revenue is largely driven by the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Rogers/Sportsnet TV contract.   :P

Yes and no.  Canadian franchises are by and large money makers and have been since the cull of Les Nordiques and Jets 1.0.  True, nothing compares to the financial juggernaut that is the Maple Leafs.  And indeed that TV contract is huge, but that TV contract is for Canadian broadcasting rights.  While all of that is great and the Leafs contribute the lions share, the seven Canadian franchises contribute 55% of NHL profits That leaves 23 U.S. based teams contributing 45%

But since we're poking fun, the Forbes report most people refer to indicated only one U.S. based franchise hemorrhaging more than $10 million per season - the Minnesota Wild.   :-X  :P  (and yeah, I don't really believe the Wild are losing more than the Panthers or Yotes either, I think that's some darn fine accounting)

Interestingly the cap situation may only get worse as the Canadian dollar declines, if it continues to do so, relative to the U.S. dollar.  It's not completely inconceivable to see the cap actually fall after next season, say if the Canadian dollar drops from 0.81 USD where it currently stand to 0.75 or less. 

3
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 30, 2015, 11:17 PM »
Please someone help me make sense of this.

Suggestions are that Saad was looking for a contract in the neighborhood of $6.5 million per season.  There's no confirmation that Saad got an offer sheet, but I suspect like the Dougie Hamilton situation something made its way to Chicago management.  Rather than enter into a protracted contract negotiation that they could never meet the demands of due to cap constraints, they opted to get a return that isn't nearly so bad as those in Chicago think it is.  Anisimov is a hell of a hockey player and Dano will be too.  Dano will be a cost controlled asset for a number of years, Anisimov not so much as he's UFA next year. 

I expect that Chicago is having a hard time moving both Bickell and Sharp.  Bickell because he's overpaid, Sharp because he's 34.  I don't know the details and constraints of either contract beyond their values but both are probably unpalatable to some degree. 

Short version is this is what happens with a roster loaded with allstars and two guys making a whole lot of money.  Of course factor in the sagging Canadian dollar (revenue in the NHL is largely driven by Canadian franchises folks, that's why it matters even though pay is in greenbacks) which resulted in a salary cap probably 5-7 million lower than expected and cap strapped teams like Boston and Chicago do surprising things.  And I'm not being smug about this either.  I'm very concerned we'll sign Byfuglien to a large contract extension and then someone will offer sheet Trouba next summer when he'll likely be looking for Hamilton money (5.75/year with term). 

4
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 30, 2015, 06:39 PM »
It's going to be hard to move Bickell...

Unless of course the old Garth Snow comes back masquerading as a guy named Sweeney.  :-X

5
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 28, 2015, 11:44 PM »
I did not know that.  Huh.  So the Wild went "off board" for their pick.  Well done.  Perhaps not as extreme as Boston but that's likely not a good model to follow this year.   :-X

6
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 27, 2015, 11:48 PM »
Dubnyk six years, $26 million, 4.33 AAV. 

Excellent contract if he sustains his play.  Word of caution: goalies = voodoo cuz they're all batshit crazy. 

7
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 27, 2015, 03:07 PM »
Chuckle.  Harkins falls all the way to #47 and Jets say 'yes, please'.  Surreal.  Most were talking of him being a first rounder and many Jets fans would have been happy with him at #25 oa.  Not quite sure about the remainder of the picks, but those first three?  Oh hell yeah.  Chevy likes his 'Mericans. 

8
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 27, 2015, 01:10 AM »
Really enjoyed the first round of the draft, watched the whole thing.  Some nice surprises, quite an exciting day.  Quite pleased to not be a Bruins fan, but have to say thanks to their group because no way did I see Kyle Connor falling to the Jets at #17  :o  Naturally Chevy turns around at #25 and has me going  ??? so it's pretty much a perfect Jets first round.  Honestly I'd have taken Juulsen, Larsson, Beauvillier, Konecny or Kylington ahead of Roslovic but the Jets have drafted well so I'll trust them on this one. 

Was very surprised the Wild took Eriksson Ek instead of White.  I really liked White and thought he was seriously undervalued due to injuries and illness this year.  Was hoping he'd fall to 25. 


9
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 25, 2015, 11:38 PM »
I don't think anyone wants to leave Chicago right now, be it Saad or someone else.  But a couple of all-stars and 21 million tied up in two players under a $71 million salary cap says guys are going to have to move, like it or not.  Saad is an RFA, the Hawks don't have to pay him THAT much really.  But if they don't, he's likely to walk once he reaches UFA, winning team or not. 

Loyalty is a dead concept.  The "home town discount" is going to amount to far less than $1 million/year difference.  Rest assured if he gets a bridge deal at $2.5 or so, it'll be harder to sign him after that two beyond his two remaining RFA years.  Every team in the league wants Saad.  While I don't think anyone will offer sheet him with a ridiculous offer because of the compensation associated with high end deals, it still might happen.  But an unsatisfactory deal, economic reality be damned, isn't going to sit well if the Leafs come calling two years down the road offering $6/7 million per.  Chicago just can't afford that. 

Toews+Kane+Hossa+Shaw+Seabrook+Keith+Hjalmarsson+Crawford = nearly $50 million dollars in salary next year.  It's going to be hard to move Bickell, but easy to move Sharp.  But even discounting those two if they're moved, you've got 8 guys on a 23 man roster making $50 million.  Teravainen is a bargain, but if you don't get much for Bickell or Sharp or Oduya (well you won't get anything here because he's UFA but it'll leave a big hole) or Versteeg in return, it won't be quite as pretty.  As it currently shows, Chicago has $7 million in cap space and 10 guys unsigned.  Eep!

Again, great organization right now.  Really run well, some absolute top end talent spread throughout the positions.  Don't think you could find a guy that wouldn't want to go there.  Oh, oh.  Salary Cap. 

10
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 25, 2015, 05:36 PM »
I'm kinda feeling Bickell will be on your bench come September.  Exactly what would you move him for?  Of course with the obvious relationship between the Hawks and Jets management, we might end up with him  ::)

Sharp gone for sure.  Oduya's return will be small.  Think you'll lose some other pieces too, especially if you're keeping Saad. 

11
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL Offseason 2015
« on: June 24, 2015, 11:02 PM »
I'm afraid this thread is just going to devolve into the "Jeff tries to keep his expectations in check" thread these next three weeks...

#mnwild #dubnyk4vezina #dubnyk4hart #suter4norris #brodin4ladybyng #koivu4selke #parise4messier

Ok, now you've become delusional.  Dubnyk is playing very, very well.  But the wheels may fall off sooner than you'd like.  It may not be until next year, but the Vezina and Hart trophies are year long trophies, not last third of the season stuff.  Even still, I'd say Price is ahead in both. 


How about that.  Plus the Ted Lindsay.  And the Jennings. 

What I said I said not because Dubnyk wasn't stellar, I said it as much because Price was having a better season for a longer period of time plus I think the Wild overall are a better hockey team than the Canadiens.  Better balance front to back, better mix of age and youth, probably better management at the moment and less headache-y players too.  So I think Price had less to work with maybe. 

12
The Bullpen / Re: Avengers Infinite
« on: June 14, 2015, 02:56 PM »
Is this even the right thread?  I've no idea any more what these things are supposed to be called.  But that said, HTS.com has the latest wave of figures available so I picked up the classic Vulture and Doc Ock plus Shanna.  The rest of the wave - ultimate Spiderman (?) and armored (?) Daredevil were up as well, but no interest from me.  Get 'em while you can. 

13
I'm old enough to more remember Lee from the Hammer movies though he was fantastic as Dooku (as could be, given the circumstances) and Saruman.  Sad to see him go but that's how you live a full life.  Well done Christopher, well done. 

14
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL 2014-15
« on: June 7, 2015, 10:39 PM »
I just picture Stamkos and his Agent, rolling into Steve Yzerman's office with the Stanley Cup, copies of Toews/Kane's 8 yr, $84mil contracts, and saying "your move" while Toronto sits with Babcock behind the wheel of a Brinks truck parked outside Stamkos' house.  :D

Hawks better win this year because that pair of contracts is likely to cripple them for some time.  Players are likely to vote for the escalator but you have to think the Hawks thought the salary cap would be higher than $71 million when they went ahead and signed those deals. 

I don't even know what to suggest the right amount for Stamkos would be, but I'll guess less than Toews/Kane got.  I'll also guess Tampa will hold onto him somehow. 

Oh, Hawks in six. 

15
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NHL 2014-15
« on: May 17, 2015, 04:39 PM »
Because I can't help myself. .....

And the greatest trophy in the world once again stays in the only country that can support it's sport.

How funny would it be if Tampa Bay had two cups since the last time Canada had won?

You might want to look at where the revenue keeping many of teams afloat in "the only country that can support it's sport" is coming from before uttering jackass nonsense like that.   ::)

Of course this is from a country who's elite military was so bright back in the 1990s and so bitter about a Canadian franchise being in the World Series, let alone winning it that they flew the Canadian flag upside down. 

See?  It's easy to be an ass****.  Stay classy 'Merika.   :-*

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