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Messages - JediJman

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6091
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 10, 2008, 08:31 AM »
I'll bet Justin...7.5 over under on Moss TD's for the year, loser buys a beer for the winner next meeting I get to

Deal, though we better meet at a place that has good beer for a change.   ;)

6092
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 06:32 PM »
The Raiders have the talent, they just need to figure out how to win games. (Not that I mind seeing them struggle horribly every year. :))

Amen to that.  Oakland is one team I love to hate.

I hope I don't get stabbed for typing that.

6093
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 06:30 PM »
If Randy Moss was on the Vikings again you think he would go for 1500 yards and 12+ TD's??

No I don't because the Vikes are incompetent.  the Pats have the same line, same coach, and same surrounding cast ex. Brady.  He's a big factor, but not the only factor.  Moss was with a horrible team, with a horrible coach and he was banged up in Oakland...that's certainly not the same as where he's at now.  I will be shocked if he doesn't still get at least 10 TDs this year and he still has upside for much more than that even without Brady.  You're obviously not very confident in your estimate or you'd take my bet.  ;)

I'd also bet that someone beats out Owens for the #1 spot this year. 

6094
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 01:00 PM »
Jay Cutler played really good tonight against the Raiders.  I think they will have a good season.

San Diego may still win the division, but the Broncos could very well be strong contenders for the wildcard.

They pounded the Raiders, but keep in mind that it was just the Raiders.  I'll believe they're for real when they do this to a decent team.

6095
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 12:59 PM »

Right... Coming from someone who has taken plenty of college statistics classes, you simply don't predict an average for a data set when you only know one data point from the set. The error rate is so high that any projection is about as useful as throwing a dart while blindfolded. There is no reason any sane statistician would predict a season based on that. Especially after your QB, last years MVP and nearly the only reason Moss set the recieving TD record last year, goes down for the season. Now you have Cassel coming in, who has been a career backup, in both college and in the NFL. I wouldn't count Moss out completely either. but 1800 yds and 16 TDs is by no menas a reasonable prediction. Cassel isn't Brady, Belichek knows that. I'd expect to see the Pats running the ball more and throwing a bit less. Moss wanted to go to NE specifically becasue of Brady, with Brady out and Cassel in will Moss start to look more like he did in Oakland? That remians to be seen I guess, but you can be assured he won't be repeating what he did last year nor will he be getting 1800 yds and 16 TDs.




You're still missing the point. Limited data sets are used to PROJECT statistics all the time.  Its not a guarantee or even a prediction of performance, just an expanded view of how that data set would be extrapolated.  As someone who has taken many statistics classes, you should know this already. I think you're getting confused by terminology. 

The whole point of the conversation is that you shouldn't assume Moss is a bust just because Brady went down, and Sunday's performance helps show that.  None of us can predict the future, but its too early to say that he will be a flop or not worthy of a first round selection when went for 100+ yards and a TD sans Brady. 

Still haven't heard back from Scott on how he is going to pay me my $100 once Moss scores his 8th TD.   ;D

6096
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 12:33 AM »
Game of the week starts tommorrow at 6:00.

Wow, what a barn burner so far... 10-6 late in the 3rd...  And I thought that The Bears had quarterback issues going into this season...  Looks like they are not alone with their brethren to the far North...

*EDIT* GreenBay just scored again, 17-6...

24 to 19 and it was a pretty good game in my opinion.  Only crappy part was that Grant didn't get that final block to make it a 59 yard TD run.  Cost me a week #1 game in my other league.   :P

6097
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 9, 2008, 12:31 AM »
It is also a horrible logical flaw to say that it projects that he will have 1800 yds and 16 TDs... You can't predict a season based on one game. Based on that logic LT would only have 1500 yds rushing and no TDs, and barring an injury we all know he won't be held out of the endzone and entire year. You need to wait a couple weeks so you can average a couple weeks together to get a better predictor. Should Brady really be out for the year, I highly doubt Moss will hit 1800 yds and 16 TDs.

No, that's what a projection is.  Use the ratio of perfromance per game to date to estimate performance for the remainder of the games and that's what Moss would have.  I'm not saying he'll do exactly that, but the point is that he isn't exactly chopped liver just because Brady is out for the season.  I think its more of a "horrible logical flaw" to say that Moss isn't first round talent and will be a bust this season with no data to back that up versus looking at his week #1 Perfromance.  ;)

60 of those yards were with Brady throwing to him...I bet he'll be close to 1100 and 7 TD's
[/quote]

And I will bet you $100 dollars that Moss scores more than 7 TD's this year.   :o

6098
Announcements / Re: Thanks for 4+ Great Years
« on: September 8, 2008, 06:15 PM »
Wow - the end of an era!  Glad you'll still be hanging around the MN section oh fearless leader and hope you enjoy "retirement."   ;)

6099
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 8, 2008, 06:13 PM »

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner. 


The rookie, Forte, didn't surprise you?

Third best RB performance of the day....

Forte surprised me a little, but I drafted him high because I thought he would be this good.  Unfortunately, I let someone talk me out of playing him.   ::)

6100
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 8, 2008, 06:12 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO. 

Moss is ONLY 1st round material because of his QB and nothing else, no QB means less of a passing threat.  Sort of like his time in Oakland...hmmm?

Cleary you have an explanation for his 116 yards and TD with a lesser QB then...?

6101
JD Sports Forum! / Re: NFL Regular Season 2008
« on: September 7, 2008, 11:24 PM »
I'm a little sore that McGahee was supposed to start and didn't get a carry, but yeah, lots going on today!  Lookit how good all the new guys are - K. Smith, M. Turner (New as a starter), Chris Johnson, Tim Hightower, Matt Forte...

Game of the week starts tommorrow at 6:00.  Let's see if AP is the real deal.

6102
Other Toy Lines / Re: Transformers
« on: September 7, 2008, 11:18 PM »
Let's face it, outside of Masterpiece Editions the transformers figs have been a pile of turds on sticks ever since they dropped the Alternators figs.

Depends on your pov Justin.  Alts turned quite a few people away (moms/dads/lil kids) because they were so complex which left little Billy pissed off as well as myself - many times. 

My POV is that Moms, Dads, Lil' kids, and Little Billy are buying turds on sticks if they're buying any TFs outside of the Alternators/Binaltech line.  ;)

6103
JD Sports Forum! / Re: JD Fantasy Football 2008
« on: September 7, 2008, 11:10 PM »
Brady owners took a huge hit, but so did Moss and Maroney...not cool but I passed on both Moss and Brady in another league at pick 5 in another league, sure am glad I did that

Losing Brady sucks, but that's just another example of why you never take a QB in the first few rounds.  I wouldn't say that Maroney and Moss took huge hits - Moss had 116 yards and a TD, which would project to an 1800 yard season with 16 TDs...that's still first round material IMO.  And Maroney may get more use with Brady out (though looks like Sammy will be poaching TDs again this year).

I think the biggest surprises of the day were Willie Parker and Micheal Turner.  I avoided Parker, but managed to land Turner in a few leagues.  Actually the biggest surprise for me was CBS Sportsline posting an article most of the day that they were the one stop source to find out who is or is not starting on gameday, then featured a picture of McGahee stating he was starting.  Thanks guys!   ::)

6104
The Clone Wars '08-'13 / Re: The Battle of Christophsis BP
« on: September 7, 2008, 12:57 AM »
In the last 24 hours, I've gone from not wanting this set, to reconsidering it for the new paint aps, to now wanting two full sets.   ::)  I need to check into collector's rehab. 

6105
Star Wars Dioramas and Displays / Re: Coruscant Landing Platform Shelf
« on: September 7, 2008, 12:56 AM »
Wow, that is a great custom and a great idea!  Is it just made of wood?  Excellent design!

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