I've actually seen several articles interviewing people in the toy industry that suggests that retailer margins on toys are more like 30-40% rather than 50%+. And that's only at the big box level. On a recent Smodcast (Kevin Smith's podcast) they talked about running a specialty toy/comic store, and referred to 25% margins. And that's on what gets sold, never mind the items that languish on shelves and end up in bargain bins.
The reason there isn't an amazon for toys (ie toys.com) anymore was that the margins were actually too slim for it to be profitable, even with advanced warehousing and just in time inventory.
Certainly, both Hasbro and Target are strong, profitable companies, and their stocks are both buys at present, so that's a good indicator of who "wins" in these situations. However, I'd never call something like the BMF Falcon a "risk"....we Star Wars fans are too rabid about our collections to ever let that one slide past...it will sell out within a week and dissapear before showing up again as a re-issue a few years later.
No offense, but I don't buy any of this. Would love to see the "several articles" stating retailer margins on toys are that low. If anything, comic book shops take a 25% margin on stuff they buy at other retailers!