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TV-9D9 / Re: The Acolyte (Disney+)
« Last post by Rob on Today at 03:17 PM »
Itís so bad.  Itís grounded in nothing.  The characters are bland and expected.  The dialogue is cringey.  The plot and conflict are milk toast. 

I canít stop thinking about how bad it is so far.
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TV-9D9 / Re: The Acolyte (Disney+)
« Last post by Dave on Today at 10:30 AM »
The jury is out as to whether this will be the worst series yet, but itís got a good head start as far as Iím concerned.

I mostly find this series boring and uninteresting so far.  Devoting the entirety of episode 3 to a backstory element that didn't really even clarify anything meaningful is super weak.

TBoBF had a lot of that same stuff, but I also found some of The Book of Boba Fett to be totally nonsensical and kind of cringy. 

I think The Acolyte still has a ways to go to reach the depths of TBoBF, but its certainly not anything I would recommend that any casual fan watches.
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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« Last post by Nicklab on June 17, 2024, 06:59 PM »
I think the date got pushed back because of a decision from Lucasfilm.  All of the promotion work for the franchise prior to announcement of the Haslab campaign was devoted to the premiere of The Acolyte on Disney+.  And then 3 days after the first two episodes dropped the promotion machine is able to shift gears to the TVC Cantina Haslab.  I donít think itís a coincidence. 
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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« Last post by Jeff on June 17, 2024, 01:40 PM »
Is there a reason why the ordering window is shorter than normal? 

They did not give one, but I'm assuming it's just time lost because they did not announce it on 5/4 as planned and they probably have some internal dates they need to hit for things?

And am I remembering right that in the past they've extended them on certain projects?  Maybe they could just change the end date.

They added almost a whole month to the TFers Unicron campaign, but that was because they opened up orders to Japan/Tomy and had to add time to make it happen.

They added a day to the GI Joe 6" Dragonfly campaign because there were some tech issues that prevented orders at one point in the campaign.

I can't recall if they extended any others...

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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« Last post by Rob on June 17, 2024, 01:14 PM »
Thanks Jeff, that's a good read.

Is there a reason why the ordering window is shorter than normal?  And am I remembering right that in the past they've extended them on certain projects?  Maybe they could just change the end date.
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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« Last post by Jeff on June 17, 2024, 12:54 PM »
Day 10 - 4979, 21+ days to go...

I know I talked about this back in the Ghost thread, but the average HasLabs runs about 6 weeks - they generate about 1/3 of backers in the first week, 1/3 in the middle 4 weeks, and 1/3 in the last week.  This HasLab being only 32 days instead of 45 is going to hurt it probably. 

If we look at things that way, based on where we are today, the math for an average HasLab says this is trending towards 12k-14k to finish.  Again, with a smaller middle section, we might be in trouble hitting that 17k tier for Ariel.  This HasLab is just different enough it's hard to predict how it will go. 

I took some time this weekend to pull up the previous TVC HasLab data again.  Here's a list of the approximate totals for the first week of the campaign, the middle 4 weeks of the campaign, and the last week of the campaign.  Format = # of backers (% of total backers)

Barge - 1840 (21%), 1920 (22%), 5080 (57%)
Crest - 8990 (32%), 6290 (22%), 12830 (46%)
Ghost - 8770 (40%), 3330 (15%), 9665 (44%)

The average HasLab/crowd fund gets about 1/3 in the first week.  The Star Wars HasLabs seem to really skew towards the FOMO in the last week with a smaller middle and a larger last week (45-55% of backers coming in the last week).

The problem for any modelling though is that all three of these had slightly different set-ups (Barge was the first ever HasLab; RC had 5 tiers that were added over time; Ghost had static tiers so everyone knew them ahead of time) and the Cantina is different yet again (1st playset, campaign is 2 weeks shorter) so it's harder to predict what will happen.

With the Cantina, we had ~4800 backers in the first week. 

If this follows the average trend of Razor Crest/Ghost (35%, 20%, 45%), then we'll see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (35%), 2740 (20%), 6175 (45%).    That would put us at 13,715 (no unlock for Tier 2/3 :().

If this follows closer to The Ghost, which had three known tiers (40%-15%-45%), then we'd see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (40%), 1800 (15%), 5400 (45%).  That would put us at 12,000 (no unlock for tier 2/3 :().

Neither of those projects takes into account though that the middle section of this campaign is only 2 weeks instead of 4. Will that cost us backers or will those backers just decide sooner or later and be part of the 1st/last week?

My best guestimate based on the data so far is 11k-13.5k for this one.  I have confidence that we'll get the Cantina funded and probably Greedo, but Tier 2/3 are really starting to worry me already.


(ps - yes, if you were paying close attention, I have completely ignored The Rancor as I do not want to acknowledge that model as an alternative path that this HasLab could follow...  :-X).
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TV-9D9 / Re: The Acolyte (Disney+)
« Last post by Matt_Fury on June 15, 2024, 05:54 PM »
Wow...an episode so bad it brought Brent back!

Good to see you dude!
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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« Last post by Dave on June 15, 2024, 09:31 AM »
Hasbro put out another promo video for the Cantina today with alternate display tips. It was a good idea for them to show how it displays on a standard shelf. Maybe that will help bump the backer numbers up a bit.

That video was really well done.  Its quite long, but great too see how you could display it on a couple standard shelves 
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TV-9D9 / Re: The Acolyte (Disney+)
« Last post by Rob on June 15, 2024, 09:15 AM »
Holy ****.  Hi Brent!


As for this episode, I honestly think itís the worst single episode of Star Wars since Disney took over, and itís not close. 

The jury is out as to whether this will be the worst series yet, but itís got a good head start as far as Iím concerned.
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TV-9D9 / Re: The Acolyte (Disney+)
« Last post by Morgbug on June 15, 2024, 01:19 AM »
Iím almost done watching the third episode and canít shake the thought that this show so far is incredibly generic and offers nothing new beyond being set 100 years earlier.

Iím finding this one to be incredibly boring, with dialogue barely better than The Phantom Menace.

Sweet Jeebus.  Another "there is no father".  I hated that with Phantom Menace and I equally hate it now.  Just a bloody stupid take regardless of who wrote it.   ::)
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