2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina

[Rob]

Yeah, I'm definitely not expecting to pull a profit on the second set (unless I keep it forever, I don't have the space for that). I am just hoping to get as much back as I can to help offset the cost of having one set of loose & carded figures. If I can get $325-$350 total for the rest of it I'd be ecstatic.

Oh yeah, if you want part of it that makes total sense. 

Separately, at the end of the day the flippers help get the thing made and help hit the stretch goals, so this is a rare situation where I'm kind of not against it.

[CorranHorn]

Yeah, I'm definitely not expecting to pull a profit on the second set (unless I keep it forever, I don't have the space for that). I am just hoping to get as much back as I can to help offset the cost of having one set of loose & carded figures. If I can get $325-$350 total for the rest of it I'd be ecstatic.

Separating it out may work best. Some folks may just want the bar. Others like myself may just need/want an extra alcove. And who doesn’t want more cups? 

[Matt_Fury]

Vern over at Oakhurst studios floated the option of just being able to purchase the deluxe portion for $100.  Awesome idea!

[Rob]

I can't imagine that helps Hasbro hit their revenue goals, but it would be a fun option for sure.

[Jeff]

Dropping this in here from Jayson/YakFace twitter:

[Matt_Fury]

Remember when they said the only way to get Beskar Mando with the soft goods cape would be with the Razor Crest???

We've received him Four different times and the last one was by himself on a card.

They will release the Tonnika Sisters and Wuher separately...I wouldn't be surprised if they are pipelined on 9 July.

[Jeff]

They will release the Tonnika Sisters and Wuher separately...I wouldn't be surprised if they are pipelined on 9 July.

That would be an epically ballsy move to say "these are exclusive to this set" and then immediately flip on that 1 day after the campaign ends.

[Dave]

The backed rate has sort of stalled. I’m sure there will be enough backers to get this funded but it’s not like the razor crest that was backed in a day.

Anybody remember how long it took the ghost to get funded? 

[Nicklab]

Check out Geek Dad Life for some historic stats on the backer numbers for the current and previous Haslab campaigns.

[Dave]

Check out Geek Dad Life for some historic stats on the backer numbers for the current and previous Haslab campaigns.

Cool.  Thanks.  That is roughly what I remember with The Razor Crest and The Ghost both backing within 48 hours.  This one flattened out much quicker than those.

[Ryan]

I wonder how much of this early stall has to do with the Cantina itself (size, price, lowered interest in OT from newer collectors or newer collectors without enough other figures to fill it in) VS. other factors like it not being revealed at Comic-Con/Celebration, there are other HasLabs that haven't shipped yet.

Hasbro put out another promo video for the Cantina today with alternate display tips. It was a good idea for them to show how it displays on a standard shelf. Maybe that will help bump the backer numbers up a bit.

[Jeff]

That is roughly what I remember with The Razor Crest and The Ghost both backing within 48 hours.  This one flattened out much quicker than those.

Important to note too that RC was only 6k to fund initially and that was part of helping it fund so quick.  The Ghost funded during day 4.

This is such a unique item, it's hard to track it to the others.  It's not based on recent, new media.  It's a playset and not a ship.  It's the first time Hasbro has asked this much for a playset.  I think the fact it's old and costs a lot are hurting it a bit with casual collectors or speculators who still have money tied up in extra Ghosts that they ordered.

I know I talked about this back in the Ghost thread, but the average HasLabs runs about 6 weeks - they generate about 1/3 of backers in the first week, 1/3 in the middle 4 weeks, and 1/3 in the last week.  This HasLab being only 32 days instead of 45 is going to hurt it probably. 

If we look at things that way, based on where we are today, the math for an average HasLab says this is trending towards 12k-14k to finish.  Again, with a smaller middle section, we might be in trouble hitting that 17k tier for Ariel.  This HasLab is just different enough it's hard to predict how it will go. 

[Dave]

Hasbro put out another promo video for the Cantina today with alternate display tips. It was a good idea for them to show how it displays on a standard shelf. Maybe that will help bump the backer numbers up a bit.

That video was really well done.  Its quite long, but great too see how you could display it on a couple standard shelves 

[Jeff]

Day 10 - 4979, 21+ days to go...

I know I talked about this back in the Ghost thread, but the average HasLabs runs about 6 weeks - they generate about 1/3 of backers in the first week, 1/3 in the middle 4 weeks, and 1/3 in the last week.  This HasLab being only 32 days instead of 45 is going to hurt it probably. 

If we look at things that way, based on where we are today, the math for an average HasLab says this is trending towards 12k-14k to finish.  Again, with a smaller middle section, we might be in trouble hitting that 17k tier for Ariel.  This HasLab is just different enough it's hard to predict how it will go. 

I took some time this weekend to pull up the previous TVC HasLab data again.  Here's a list of the approximate totals for the first week of the campaign, the middle 4 weeks of the campaign, and the last week of the campaign.  Format = # of backers (% of total backers)

Barge - 1840 (21%), 1920 (22%), 5080 (57%)
Crest - 8990 (32%), 6290 (22%), 12830 (46%)
Ghost - 8770 (40%), 3330 (15%), 9665 (44%)

The average HasLab/crowd fund gets about 1/3 in the first week.  The Star Wars HasLabs seem to really skew towards the FOMO in the last week with a smaller middle and a larger last week (45-55% of backers coming in the last week).

The problem for any modelling though is that all three of these had slightly different set-ups (Barge was the first ever HasLab; RC had 5 tiers that were added over time; Ghost had static tiers so everyone knew them ahead of time) and the Cantina is different yet again (1st playset, campaign is 2 weeks shorter) so it's harder to predict what will happen.

With the Cantina, we had ~4800 backers in the first week. 

If this follows the average trend of Razor Crest/Ghost (35%, 20%, 45%), then we'll see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (35%), 2740 (20%), 6175 (45%).    That would put us at 13,715 (no unlock for Tier 2/3 ).

If this follows closer to The Ghost, which had three known tiers (40%-15%-45%), then we'd see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (40%), 1800 (15%), 5400 (45%).  That would put us at 12,000 (no unlock for tier 2/3 ).

Neither of those projects takes into account though that the middle section of this campaign is only 2 weeks instead of 4. Will that cost us backers or will those backers just decide sooner or later and be part of the 1st/last week?

My best guestimate based on the data so far is 11k-13.5k for this one.  I have confidence that we'll get the Cantina funded and probably Greedo, but Tier 2/3 are really starting to worry me already.


(ps - yes, if you were paying close attention, I have completely ignored The Rancor as I do not want to acknowledge that model as an alternative path that this HasLab could follow...  ).

[Rob]

Thanks Jeff, that's a good read.

Is there a reason why the ordering window is shorter than normal?  And am I remembering right that in the past they've extended them on certain projects?  Maybe they could just change the end date.