2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina

[Jeff]

Is there a reason why the ordering window is shorter than normal? 

They did not give one, but I'm assuming it's just time lost because they did not announce it on 5/4 as planned and they probably have some internal dates they need to hit for things?

And am I remembering right that in the past they've extended them on certain projects?  Maybe they could just change the end date.

They added almost a whole month to the TFers Unicron campaign, but that was because they opened up orders to Japan/Tomy and had to add time to make it happen.

They added a day to the GI Joe 6" Dragonfly campaign because there were some tech issues that prevented orders at one point in the campaign.

I can't recall if they extended any others...

[Nicklab]

I think the date got pushed back because of a decision from Lucasfilm.  All of the promotion work for the franchise prior to announcement of the Haslab campaign was devoted to the premiere of The Acolyte on Disney+.  And then 3 days after the first two episodes dropped the promotion machine is able to shift gears to the TVC Cantina Haslab.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence. 

[Jeff]

If this follows the average trend of Razor Crest/Ghost (35%, 20%, 45%), then we'll see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (35%), 2740 (20%), 6175 (45%).    That would put us at 13,715 (no unlock for Tier 2/3 ).

If this follows closer to The Ghost, which had three known tiers (40%-15%-45%), then we'd see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (40%), 1800 (15%), 5400 (45%).  That would put us at 12,000 (no unlock for tier 2/3 ).

Neither of those projects takes into account though that the middle section of this campaign is only 2 weeks instead of 4. Will that cost us backers or will those backers just decide sooner or later and be part of the 1st/last week?

My best guestimate based on the data so far is 11k-13.5k for this one.  I have confidence that we'll get the Cantina funded and probably Greedo, but Tier 2/3 are really starting to worry me already.

Day 10 - 4979, 21+ days to go...
Day 17 - 5708, 14+ days to go...

So, where are we at now?

4800 first week - 900 (middle 1/2 done) - ? last week

I still have faith that the Cantina and probably Greedo will fund. 

I am still holding out hope that we get a crazy mega-FOMO push at the end to get more tiers.  After all, the models are just that -  models.  Although having to basically triple the number in the last two weeks to get Ariel unlocked is not optimal.

[Rob]

Yeah I don't have high hopes for that one.

Which the more I think about it the more obnoxious it is. Like, people either want the Cantina or they don't.  Sure you order one for the figures too, especially the Tonnika Sister.

But, I can't imagine many people who are on the fence ordering one specifically hoping to help unlock the tiers.  So essentially they're nice bonuses, but probably not a big driver of more preorders.
 Meaning, if the product they're attached to isn't popular enough to sell 17,000 units, this thing that could have been on a regular card anyway might never happen.  Which would be a bummer.   

Hopefully if it doesn't make it, enough of the digital sculpting work is done to make it an easy and cost effective figure to pipeline later anyway.

[EdSolo]

The problem is the extra tiers are all lackluster.  Who needs another Greedo?  Even though the other two are a bit more interesting, they have been done before, even though it has been quite some time.  And they have already said they would rerelease them on another cardback.  Make a Chalmun or an Ackmena, then maybe you would see higher numbers.  Ultimately it boils down to people wanting to drop $400 to $500 on an item that takes up a lot of space.

[Rob]

I remember they said those unlocks would be on different cards, but do they still get released on other cardbacks if they don’t get unlocked in the Haslab?   If that’s the case I really don’t care if they get unlocked here…

[Jeff]

And they have already said they would rerelease them on another cardback.

I remember they said those unlocks would be on different cards, but do they still get released on other cardbacks if they don’t get unlocked in the Haslab? 

According to Steve Evens on Instagram, they need to get unlocked to be made at all.

Dropping this in here from Jayson/YakFace twitter:

Whether you believe Steve is another thing I guess.

[Rob]

That’s what I’d thought. 

Ultimately if they reversed course that would just lead people to not take them at their word next time.

[StBrianOfMinneapolis]

The problem is the extra tiers are all lackluster.  Who needs another Greedo?  Even though the other two are a bit more interesting, they have been done before, even though it has been quite some time.  And they have already said they would rerelease them on another cardback.  Make a Chalmun or an Ackmena, then maybe you would see higher numbers.  Ultimately it boils down to people wanting to drop $400 to $500 on an item that takes up a lot of space.

I agree one the poor choice of the tiered characters. I can't get on board with Ackmena and Chalmun feels like more of a figment of my imagination. I would take less marketable but odd looking characters like Atheloe.
https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Atheloe

[Dave]

The tier system for big time HasLab items really doesn't make much sense.

I get it when you're a small, independent company, and you really don't have a great sense for demand for your offering, and when the pricing is a lot lower or where you might buy multiples.  I did a handful in the early days for Boss Fight Studious.  And having tiers in this situation can help create some real momentum to keep the campaign going.

When it comes to a $400 HasLab purchase where unlocking the tiers is really just gravy to the overall offering doesn't really make sense.  If I'm on the fence about dropping $400, I really don't think getting a new Greedo or even an all new figure (other than maybe the Tonnikas) is going to move the needle much.  If Hasbro really is interested in making those figures they should just include it with the base offering and create that much value for everyone from the beginning.  And honestly, Hasbro should have a pretty good read on the TVC market to know where these types of things are going to roughly end up, so they should be able to create an offering from the beginning that makes financial sense for them and offers enough value for consumers.

[Jeff]

Hasbro should have a pretty good read on the TVC market to know where these types of things are going to roughly end up, so they should be able to create an offering from the beginning that makes financial sense for them and offers enough value for consumers.

Sounds like you are saying that Hasbro should not be in the crowd-fund business then?

Set a manufacturing run of 15k units for a Hasbro Pulse $350 Cantina set with Wuher; a $50 Tonnika sister carded 2-pack; and a $55 Greedo, Nabrun, Ariel carded 3-pack at Amazon.  No HasLab needed.

[Rob]

It wouldn't make any difference to me. 

That they're reducing the price on the Jabba's Palace set has me thinking that play sets will continue to be crowdfunded though going forward... enough guaranteed sales or no go.

[Diddly]

From what I see online, TVC still has a pretty healthy fanbase. And it's one of the rare modern toylines that has held or increased in value over the years. If the Tonnika Sisters' first figures aren't enough to at least get the base package backed, what are we even doing here anymore? People have been requesting them from Hasbro for as long as I have been on the Internet! I know Star Wars isn't popular at all right now, but there is no way that interest is so low that this set can't get made.

I'm sure this will be like the Barge where a huge surge at the end gets it made. My personal conspiracy theory is that the US economy stinks right now, and $4-500 is a LOT to ask for most people.

[Muftak]

Just remember that the "huge surge" for the Barge only resulted in 8,000 units being made...and it happened when Hasbro added the POTF carded Yakface to the package, not really in the final few days.

HasLabs these days have truly huge end spikes, though. Once it funds there will be a huge spike of the people with their heads on the sand who "need" a complete collection, but are currently hoping for the project to not fund so they don't have to drop $400 on 3 new figures.

It all depends on how much time is left after it funds.

[Rob]

Just remember that the "huge surge" for the Barge only resulted in 8,000 units being made...and it happened when Hasbro added the POTF carded Yakface to the package, not really in the final few days.

*8,800.

Also, we can't really 0say whether that surge was because it was the last minute (which seems to be a regular thing) or if it was because of the Yak Face. 

HasLabs these days have truly huge end spikes, though. Once it funds there will be a huge spike of the people with their heads on the sand who "need" a complete collection, but are currently hoping for the project to not fund so they don't have to drop $400 on 3 new figures.

It all depends on how much time is left after it funds.

Weird dumb human psychology... you don't get charged if it doesn't fund.  So if that's your rationale, why bother waiting?