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Messages - Jeff

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1
The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« on: June 17, 2024, 01:40 PM »
Is there a reason why the ordering window is shorter than normal? 

They did not give one, but I'm assuming it's just time lost because they did not announce it on 5/4 as planned and they probably have some internal dates they need to hit for things?

And am I remembering right that in the past they've extended them on certain projects?  Maybe they could just change the end date.

They added almost a whole month to the TFers Unicron campaign, but that was because they opened up orders to Japan/Tomy and had to add time to make it happen.

They added a day to the GI Joe 6" Dragonfly campaign because there were some tech issues that prevented orders at one point in the campaign.

I can't recall if they extended any others...


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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« on: June 17, 2024, 12:54 PM »
Day 10 - 4979, 21+ days to go...

I know I talked about this back in the Ghost thread, but the average HasLabs runs about 6 weeks - they generate about 1/3 of backers in the first week, 1/3 in the middle 4 weeks, and 1/3 in the last week.  This HasLab being only 32 days instead of 45 is going to hurt it probably. 

If we look at things that way, based on where we are today, the math for an average HasLab says this is trending towards 12k-14k to finish.  Again, with a smaller middle section, we might be in trouble hitting that 17k tier for Ariel.  This HasLab is just different enough it's hard to predict how it will go. 

I took some time this weekend to pull up the previous TVC HasLab data again.  Here's a list of the approximate totals for the first week of the campaign, the middle 4 weeks of the campaign, and the last week of the campaign.  Format = # of backers (% of total backers)

Barge - 1840 (21%), 1920 (22%), 5080 (57%)
Crest - 8990 (32%), 6290 (22%), 12830 (46%)
Ghost - 8770 (40%), 3330 (15%), 9665 (44%)

The average HasLab/crowd fund gets about 1/3 in the first week.  The Star Wars HasLabs seem to really skew towards the FOMO in the last week with a smaller middle and a larger last week (45-55% of backers coming in the last week).

The problem for any modelling though is that all three of these had slightly different set-ups (Barge was the first ever HasLab; RC had 5 tiers that were added over time; Ghost had static tiers so everyone knew them ahead of time) and the Cantina is different yet again (1st playset, campaign is 2 weeks shorter) so it's harder to predict what will happen.

With the Cantina, we had ~4800 backers in the first week. 

If this follows the average trend of Razor Crest/Ghost (35%, 20%, 45%), then we'll see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (35%), 2740 (20%), 6175 (45%).    That would put us at 13,715 (no unlock for Tier 2/3 :().

If this follows closer to The Ghost, which had three known tiers (40%-15%-45%), then we'd see something like this:
---Cantina: 4800 (40%), 1800 (15%), 5400 (45%).  That would put us at 12,000 (no unlock for tier 2/3 :().

Neither of those projects takes into account though that the middle section of this campaign is only 2 weeks instead of 4. Will that cost us backers or will those backers just decide sooner or later and be part of the 1st/last week?

My best guestimate based on the data so far is 11k-13.5k for this one.  I have confidence that we'll get the Cantina funded and probably Greedo, but Tier 2/3 are really starting to worry me already.


(ps - yes, if you were paying close attention, I have completely ignored The Rancor as I do not want to acknowledge that model as an alternative path that this HasLab could follow...  :-X).

3
The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« on: June 14, 2024, 05:20 PM »
That is roughly what I remember with The Razor Crest and The Ghost both backing within 48 hours.  This one flattened out much quicker than those.

Important to note too that RC was only 6k to fund initially and that was part of helping it fund so quick.  The Ghost funded during day 4.

This is such a unique item, it's hard to track it to the others.  It's not based on recent, new media.  It's a playset and not a ship.  It's the first time Hasbro has asked this much for a playset.  I think the fact it's old and costs a lot are hurting it a bit with casual collectors or speculators who still have money tied up in extra Ghosts that they ordered.

I know I talked about this back in the Ghost thread, but the average HasLabs runs about 6 weeks - they generate about 1/3 of backers in the first week, 1/3 in the middle 4 weeks, and 1/3 in the last week.  This HasLab being only 32 days instead of 45 is going to hurt it probably. 

If we look at things that way, based on where we are today, the math for an average HasLab says this is trending towards 12k-14k to finish.  Again, with a smaller middle section, we might be in trouble hitting that 17k tier for Ariel.  This HasLab is just different enough it's hard to predict how it will go. 

4
The Vintage Collection / Re: 2024 TVC Wave 6 (New TVC Wave 38)
« on: June 12, 2024, 10:54 PM »
I'd fully expect him in a $24.99 deluxe box at some point.  Can't see them letting him go for $16.99.

Yeah, if they do Kelnacca, we're definitely going to have to pay the DLX box price for him.

I feel like if it were just one of the other Jedi, there's no reason they wouldn't have announced it on the initial livestream.

Same.  They saved the Osha reveal until the show aired.  If that last figure is from Acolyte, the Sith/Dark Master is a good guess.  Or maybe the Mother from this week's episode?

5
The Vintage Collection / Re: 2024 TVC Wave 5 (New TVC Wave 37)
« on: June 12, 2024, 12:52 PM »
2024 VC3xx Osha Aniseya now up for pre-order -

Amazon -> https://amzn.to/4ensFJY
EE -> https://ee.toys/R19MPH


Case of 8 at EE -> https://ee.toys/PC9L3L
1x TBD
1x VC3xx Osha Aniseya
2x VC328 Mae (Assassin)
1x VC329 Jedi Master Sol
1x VC330 HK-87 Assassin Droid (Arcana)
2x VC271 Dark Trooper

#ad #sponsored #thanksforyoursupport

6
Looks like Amazon accidentally listed this early - https://amzn.to/3yYOijr

#ad #sponsored #thanksforyoursupport

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TV-9D9 / Re: The Acolyte (Disney+)
« on: June 12, 2024, 12:37 PM »
Obviously the fire did not kill the coven, and we still need to see what caused Osha to walk away from the Jedi.

SPOILERS for anyone who has not seen it yet...


I kind of keyed in on Jedi Master Tommen Baratheon.  He drank that poison pretty willingly in Ep2, so he had to feel bad about something.  In that temple, his face was all scarred and his eye was messed up.  In the flashback episode, at the start, we see Jedi Padawan Tommen get possessed by the witches and his face is fine.  Taking blood from Osha, face still fine.  Later in the episode, when Osha is waking up on the Jedi ship, you can see Jedi Tommen in the background next to Jedi Master Trinity and his face seems to be wounded in the same pattern as the scars we'd see in Ep2.

My guess is that the witches got into some kind of disagreement about Mother Mama wanting to let Osha go with the Jedi and Mother Lady-Maul wanting Osha to stay with the witches.  There was some kind of throw-down, Mother Lady-Maul kills Mother Mama.  Jedi showed up (maybe to collect the girls or sensing the danger?).  Mother Lady-Maul attacks the Jedi in an attempt to stop Osha from leaving, Padawan Tommen gets his pretty face messed up, some portion of the Jedi take out the witches, they blame it on the fire.

I'll agree with you guys that this show's pacing and excitement level is not setting the world on fire, but I'm willing to see this ride to the end and judge then.

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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« on: June 11, 2024, 10:59 PM »
They will release the Tonnika Sisters and Wuher separately...I wouldn't be surprised if they are pipelined on 9 July.

That would be an epically ballsy move to say "these are exclusive to this set" and then immediately flip on that 1 day after the campaign ends.

9
Was away from the internet today so I missed posting this earlier -



 

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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2024 TVC Wave 6 (New TVC Wave 38)
« on: June 11, 2024, 10:28 PM »
Was out all day and didn't have a chance to post - going up for pre-order tomorrow:



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The Vintage Collection / Re: 2025 HasLab Mos Eisley Cantina
« on: June 11, 2024, 10:22 PM »
Dropping this in here from Jayson/YakFace twitter:


12
Another one came to mind that I feel a little silly not mentioning earlier - Han Solo from the Sarlacc pit battle!

The version that came with the Carbonite block reads much more as a TESB version.  And that dates back to 2014, IIRC.

Hoo boy, yeah.  Recent attempts at Han pre- and post- freezing have been a bit lacking for sure -


13
The Vintage Collection / Re: The Tonnika Sisters
« on: June 10, 2024, 11:27 AM »
So we don't have Rob to thank for commissioning customs of the Tonnikas for several hundred dollars????

No, the custom ones he bought were Kenner style.  If Hasbro announces Retro Collection Tonnikas then we'll give Rob credit.  :D

14
Just $13 on Amazon right now...  https://amzn.to/4cg5pf4


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The Vintage Collection / Re: The Tonnika Sisters
« on: June 10, 2024, 10:12 AM »
Of course it happens just months after I finally finished my 15 year long customs of themů

We all thank you for your sacrifice.  Can you please finish work on a custom Tzizvvt and Yerka Mig so Hasbro makes those too?  :D

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