Hasbro 30AC Overload Already?

[Ook]

Man, with the amount of crap that's hit the stores in the 2-3 weeks, you'd think there was a movie coming out or something...

I think it's precisely that there are no more movies to come that they're taking advantage this anniversary year to milk every last drop they can out of the toys. I think the line will go on for a while still, especially with new shows coming. But I think this is probably the last BIG hurrah.

[Brian]

I was just reading this week's Q and A column over at GH, and Adam Pawlus is calculating that there has already been 85 figures released this year.  Not all new of course - but counting repacks/battle packs/repaints/exclusives/etc., there have been 85 figures so far this year.  Sure, not many of us will pick all of those (or half of those) up, but yikes, that's a lot of product out there already - for not quite being April.  We could be on pace for one of the biggest (and most expensive) Star Wars years yet.  Not that I think the Star Wars line is struggling or anything (quite the opposite), but I wonder if we'll see a slow down in the next few years.  It just seems like we're getting a lot of the stuff we've been asking for this year, and even getting the "ultimate" super-articulated versions of many of the main characters out of the way.  Of course, there is TV and EU stuff in the future as well, but for some reason to me there is just this air of getting a lot of stuff "done" this year.  Anyways - 85 figures so far - I feel for completists.  Yeah, I could see overload from that.  Its bad enough that I'm hoping to collect most to all of the basic figure line this year - the first time I've come close to that in a long time.

[Darby]

I read the same thing and was equally amazed.  85 figures in a few months time - and there were only 92 in the vintage line over several years?  The sheer volume is maddening.  I don't buy everything - maybe 25% - but I kind of think there's too much to buy for just me sometimes.

[AnakinsHand]

I've become a selective buyer, only getting what I really want. It's come to that, but financially, I can't afford to get everything. Even still, there's so much out there that I want, it's gonna be hard to keep up.

[TheBlackDog65]

Do I think Hasbro has overloaded? Depends on the view I take. Hasbro is a company out to make a profit. So of course they are going to ramp up using the 30th anniversary as an excuse.  Perhaps the question is does that mean I am going to overload on my spending and feed the giant? Nope. Buy what I like, and either save the money or spend it on other things I like/want.

[Jesse James]

I was out picking up some things tonight and got the Salecumi pack, another Airborne Trooper, and the coin folder...  I was at Target and almost asked them to pull the 66 packs out from the back and then just decided to go home and wait till next pay for those since they should be out by then.  It really is a financial burden if you're into this stuff right now.  Full Wave 1, battlepacks out the ass, 2-packs, figures galore...

It's frustrating too just going to the store for the exclusives too.  Target's are anything but conveniently located for me so the 66 packs are really weighing heavily on my mind.  I'm gonna have to make a special trip for them most likely.  That sucks.  I just hope there's a LOT of them in the pipeline...  If something would be nice to find easily on the shelves, it's these, at least for me.

[Brian]

It really is a financial burden if you're into this stuff right now.  Full Wave 1, battlepacks out the ass, 2-packs, figures galore...

That's so true Jesse.  Like I've said before, even if I collected the Star Wars basic line - and nothing else - it still would cost a pretty penny.  Its really why I have to constantly think if I can pick up anything from other lines, or outside of the Star Wars basic lines at all.  It also has me re-thinking vehicles (specifically PT ones), and things along those lines.  I really like everything that is coming out, and I think this might be one of the best years yet for SW collecting - but I'd be ok if things slowed down a little.  There's just too much stuff to keep up with now - and even though it is my choice, its hard to pass much of it up.  That's why I'm sometimes nostalgic about those POTF2 days (the early days) - and how easy it must have been to collect back then.  Only 20 or less figures per year at first, a handful of vehicles/beasts, and that's about it.

[Paul]

Not enough OT stuff (yet)......but I will be honest...if we all we got was 15-20 VOTC-esque figures per year from the Original Trilogy (and YES at VOTC prices).  I would be content.

I'd much rather pay for Quality right now.   Heck I bought Wave 2 from overseas because everyone else was having so much TAC fun......

[Brian]

Not enough OT stuff (yet)......but I will be honest...if we all we got was 15-20 VOTC-esque figures per year from the Original Trilogy (and YES at VOTC prices).  I would be content.

As much as I enjoy all the great product we've been getting (and will buy much to most of it) - I'd be ok with something along those lines too.  I know it would be easier (and my wife much happier) if I would only buy the VOTC figures every year, but in a year like this one there's just too much in the basic line that I like too.  At any rate, I'd be ok with less than 60-80 figures each year like the last three years have been.  I remember telling my wife after the 2005 ROTS year that "things will be much less from here on out".  That hasn't been the case though, and in some instances, its almost more.

[CHEWIE]

The Battle Packs are kicking my butt financially... I've bought so many of the Tantive set... I figure at 20 sets I'll be done... almost there!

 

[CHEWIE]

I don't see Star Wars stuff going away for about a decade - heck, it might very well continue long after that.

I think right now they're focusing on what they think will sell - a mix of rehashes, repaints and new figures.  It seems right now is the time to try and fill in slots with some EU stuff we want and more movie figures, with some nice OT characters being made.  Then I think they're going to shift their focus over the next few years to the TV series and the like, with some stuff still coming out that harkens back to the films.

Somewhere a few years down the road, we'll probably get something again like The Original Trilogy Collection, with newer sculpts (mostly rehashes) of the figures from the OT.  New packaging but still harkens back to the vintage days... heck, maybe this whole like will be in something that is similar to vintage POTF cards.

Anyways though - as for what's a good mix?  I'd like to see about 10 waves per year in non-film years.  Out of those 10 waves, let's say about 4 new figures per wave (let's say 1-2 GOOD repacks/ugraded figures per wave), with some sort of good repack here and there mixed into each wave.  Then throw in VOTC style, and I'm liking about 40-45 new sculpts each year, and anywhere from 15-20 repacks in the basic line.  Then you figure in Battle Backs into the mix too... perhaps a mix of some new stuff in Battle Packs mixed with some repacks.

So, to my liking this is what we'd see -

NEW STUFF
Basic Line New Sculpts - 30-40 figures per year
Vintage Line - 5-6 figures per year
Battle Packs - 2-3 new Battle Packs per year with all new figures
= 40 - 60 all new sculpts

REPACK STUFF
Basic Line Repacks - 20 figures per year
Battle Packs - 8-10 "old" Battle Packs per year with mixed in army builders/repacks
= 40 - 60 repacks per year

The repack stuff, if you're an opener - you can take it or leave it.

 

[Brian]

I don't see Star Wars stuff going away for about a decade - heck, it might very well continue long after that.

Yeah, overall, I don't see Star Wars going anywhere for a longtime - if ever.  When the "modern" line first came out, there wasn't all the other collecting areas (higher end, playskoolish, etc.) - it was, for the most part, just the basic line and a couple other things (micro machines, LEGO).  These days, even the cultish hits movies and/or shows have some sort of collectible.  It used to be just "big guns" like Star Wars, Marvel, DC, the movie flavor of the year, and things like that.  These days, lines for TV shows like LOST, 24, Family Guy, Simpsons, etc. can survive, and there are other "niche" lines that keep going for quite some time.  The collector market is just so much broader now, so when I see these smaller lines starting - and continuing - I don't see how there possibly couldn't at least be some sort of Star Wars collectible line going.  Maybe there will be a point where Hasbro doesn't think it is "profitable enough" to keep a mass retail line going, but there will always be other areas.  It would depend largely on what Hasbro wanted to do.  If there wasn't movie/TV to drive Star Wars along, and stores like Wal-Mart weren't interested in Star Wars lines anymore, they could very easily do a collector line sold through Hasbro Toy Shop - but I don't know if they would be interested in that or not.  Anyways - yeah, I don't see an end in sight for Star Wars - at least not anytime soon.

[Morgbug]

What's going to happen to the collectibles market if an economic recession sets in?  I'm just curious, because I keep reading about an imminent collapse of the current US market due to unrealistically low mortgage rates coupled with higher than, well, ever, debtload.  How many folks are able to maintain a pace like they currently are if inflation creeps up to 4% and banks change the mortgage rates by 5% or so? 

If you couple that with rising oil prices (which almost inveritably will mean a rise in inflation) that impacts your collecting style (more $$ for a toy run) plus higher prices for the figures then is the statement I don't see Star Wars stuff going away for about a decade - heck, it might very well continue long after that. unrealistically optimistic?  And I'm not trying to pick on chewie here, he just made the statement.  I just can't shake the feeling that economic forecasts have Hasbro busting their collective butt to get as much product out while they can. 

I know looking around the street I live on, most people are stretched thin.  Really thin.  Yet they all have the 'toys' they want be it a car, big screen tv or whatever.  But I'd guess 60% or more would be leaving for lower priced housing should the interest rates on a five year mortgage double.  Jeez, it wouldn't even need to double, just go up by about 2-3% and they're done. 

As for the original question, maybe 40 new figs, 20 repaints total.  60 is a reasonable number. 

[Brian]

Those are excellent points Brent.  Its reasoning like that that really makes me curious as to what is on the way in the future.  I think you are correct about people being stretched thin, and everything seems to cost more and more all the time.  Plus, like I was mentioning before there are just so many different collectible lines out there - both at retail and more exclusive avenues.  It sort of reminds me of my younger days when I used to collect sports cards.  It was relatively affordable (I could keep up when I was in elementary/junior high pretty well then, and then more and more brands started blossoming, the number of cards in a pack went down, and the price went up.  Eventually, I (and many/most of my friends) dropped out.  It might have been age a little bit too, but I remember as a kid just thinking "this is a ridiculous, I can't afford this".  I can see some of that going on with collecting too, at least with some people.  I wonder with all the various lines out there these days (Star Wars and other lines), if things are going to have to have a "crash" of sorts, and pare things down a bit.  I'm definitely not an expert of the value of things by any means, but we're already seeing that so much of the modern stuff doesn't hold its value over time, and really only the "hot" things of the time are worth anything at all, and that eventually goes down as well.  Just a product of more people buying it up (to keep), scalpers, and all that jazz.

I don't personally really care what my collection is worth, but I think to some extent it does play a part in the overall hobby.  Just from who is buying stuff up, how it can eventually lead to things dropping off, and all of that.  As much as I like collecting, I can admit that things are a bit overcrowded in the action figure/collectible market right now, and a more streamlined approach maybe wouldn't be so bad.  Anyways - I didn't mean for this to get long winded, but great points Brent.  Interesting to think about.  I like the idea of 40 new figures a year.  Repacks, sure another 20 or so would be fine, not everyone needs to pick those up.  It would just be easier to keep up.  Of course, I don't have to buy everything, but its easier when there isn't that option .  I always say I envy those who were collecting in the early POTF2 days, when there was maybe 20-30 figures in a year (often times less).  I know my wife would appreciate that more .

[CHEWIE]

No offense taken Brent.  I'm only 29 (young to a few people on the boards) and still have a lot to learn in life, but overall I'm a pretty optimistic person about most things including the economy.  I think there's a pretty negative outlook on a lot of things in the news, but I think a lot of that is driven by "bad news gets more ratings so let's cover that" and a lot of people see that being reported and that's where their judgements come from.  Of course you could be entirely right though, I'm no economist!

If cost of living gets out of hand, yeah collecting will be something that gets hit - but for me the first thing that would be eliminated would be fast food - I'd start brown bagging my meals = more money for figures.  But really though, life changes (like a kid!) are what is going to affect me the most in my future collecting.  I'll just need to increase my salary somehow.

As for relating it to sports cards, let's pray that the Star Wars line never hits that... I don't think it ever will though.... my line of thinking on this is that Toys are a different market than sports cards.... cards come in packs, and you don't know what you're going to get in a pack.  You could get a pack of "commons" or find that Albert Pujols insert worth a few hundred bucks.  You know what you're getting when you walk into Walmart and carry a few Galactic Marines to the register, but with packs of cards you're hoping to get what you want. 

Plus, there are so many different card manufacturers in competition... Topps, Upperdeck, Donruss, Fleer, etc... they are all trying to outdo each other with their sets, and it just got to be too much - for me in the early 90s it was getting out of hand, then around 1995 Star Wars stuff started coming back out, and I liked it a lot more and also could afford it.  Star Wars has competition, but not like that - there's not several other companies at the same time offering a 3-3/4" Darth Vader figure.  Hasbro has a monoply on the basic line which really is good for us in my opinion.  I don't agree with all their decisions (especially playsets) but overall we're probably lucky that Mattel and Playmates aren't also making Star Wars figures in the 3-3/4" scale... though I would like to see Gentle Giant expand into 3-3/4" dioramas, which is a debate for another time.

What does worry me though is the AFA grading that Hasbro seemed interested in with a recent survey that they had, so who knows - they could be going down a very dark path with that.  I definitely don't want to see them try and make "premium graded" stuff - I'll pass on that.  Let the rich boys spend their dough on that.